Evaluating a Health Promotion Website Essay

Health breeding Technology ( shine) has been introduced into the National Health Service (NHS) in order to make better the quality, efficiency, safety and cost effectiveness of the delivery of health c atomic number 18. The application of computerized teaching technology in health cargon settings has so far contend a vital role in improving the accessibility of info and has replaced more labour intensive and unproductive methods (Shekelle and Goldzweig, 2009).The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC, 2009) keep that that nurses skills, experience and be create mustiness be spotterd by the shell for sale indorse. Often this take the stand is found on the mesh and many sources of info can be inaccurate so a good standard of critical evaluation is required (Kim, Eng, Deering et al 1998).To value the quality and reliability of a chosen website the use of a good example can be helpful such as Roberts (2012) 5 Cs website tool. This framework evaluates five atomic number 18as credibility, currency, fill, construction and clarity. The website The Royal College of Psychiatrists (RC Psych, 2012 a) was chosen to be evaluated because as a moral health nursing student this willing develop an awareness of how information technology is implemented and applied to practice in health care. Addition completelyy, by utilize Roberts (2012) 5 Cs framework to critically evaluate this website, cognition and skills of the quality and reliability of HIT will be acquired.Main BodyRC Psych is the professional and educational government activity for psychiatrist in the UK as nearly as being a registered charity (RC Psych, 2012 b). Their website is aimed at improving the lives of individuals touched by psychic illness through educating the public. They claim to be at the head of developing and promoting topper practice in mental health services through their education, teaching and research projects. Additionally they are involved in the publishing of the futur e(a) world-class journals British Journal of Psychiatry, The Psychiatrist, Advances in Psychiatric Treatment and world-wide Psychiatry (RC Psych, 2012 c).CredibilityHaving gained a royal charter this evinces us that the face has been recognised by the Queen and seconded by the government to call itself a registered organisation of the highest regard. As soild by the Privy Council Office (2012) organisations tending(p) a Royal Charter must have a satisfying record of achievement. 75% of its members should be qualified to at least foremost degree level and the work completed by the organisation must be in the interest of the public.Professor turncock Tyrer is named as the Editor, of the website, and is verbalise to be responsible for the editor in chiefial and merchandise aspects of its publications in sum total to the production of their online continuing professional development (CPD) e-learning resources and its sales and marketing (RC Psych, 2012 d). After researching Peter Tyrer it is evident that he is highly qualified within the field of mental health and is a professor of community psychiatry for the Department of Medicine, within the Imperial College London (Imperial College London, 2012).The website offers a vast amount of information more or less mental health including conditions, diagnoses, treatments and types of therapies. The advice fork overd is produced in the form of online leaflets for the use of the public as well as professionals. Within the website there is no evidence to show that the same specific authors are utilise regularly for their create articles however, at the end of each article the producer, editor and sometimes an author are named in addition to any expert that has been involved in the qualification of it.All these leaflets are produced by the RC Psych Public Education Editorial panel that is responsible for producing 300 educational leaflets. These leaflets have been accredited by the NHS education Standar d and subsequently gained numerous awards (Byrne, 2011). They have achieved Plain English and BMA tolerant role information awards and have received consistently positive feedback for the web versions. The editor of these leaflets is Dr Phillip Timms who is currently employed as a consultant Psychiatrist for the atomic number 16 London & Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust as well as a senior lecturer in psychiatry at Kings College, London (BMJ Masterclasses, 2012).This sites web address shows that it is delivered by a UK based academic body as it has an ac.uk URL. This confirms their credibility and reassures the subscriber that they are qualified experts able to give advice in this field (Roberts, 2010).Combining all this it is apparent that the producers of the website have appropriate qualifications and expertise to offer advice in regards to mental health and supports the credibility of the organisation and the website. Some of these points also link into the unalike five Cs for example, the awards that the leaflets have received show that the bailiwick and clarity of their work has been assessed and found to be of an acceptable standard.CurrencyWhen using a website for personal development reasons or to recommend to a patient the information being accessed should be the most current evidence available that has been proven in practice. In regards to the advice allow ford on the website RC Psych (2012 e) states that they endeavour to update it every two to three years. This is reflected in the articles by showing the date the information was last updated and the date it will be re overtakeed in the future. Additionally RC Psych (2012 d) state that their information derives from the best evidence available at the time of committal to writing and is updated regularly to reflect any changes in knowledge.A nonher way to desex the currency of information is to consider the references used to back it up (Roberts, 2010). If the sources are dated then what you are reading may non coiffure from the most current research so there may be more up to date evidence elsewhere. The dates of the references used through turn out the website are quite varied however, they do contain many recently published articles and up to date clinical guidelines so this suggests that they are committed to producing up to date information and evidence. This is seen in a leaflet on picture where RC Psyche (2012 f) cites a recently updated guideline by the National nominate for Clinical Excellence (NICE, 2009) which looks at the treatment and management of depression in adults. The currency and credibility of the website can also be reflected in its content and therefore this should also be assessed during the evaluation process.ContentAs well as being credible and current the content must be assessed for its objectivity, accuracy and completeness (Roberts, 2010). The content of a website can be judged by assessing what the website aims to achieve. This could b e selling a product, persuading the audience to believe in something or to provide the reader with unbiassed and up to date information on a specific affair (Roberts, 2010). RC Psych (2012 a) profess that they aim to improve the lives of individuals with a mental health illness. They aim to do this by educating people through reservation information and advice available on their website. This would indicate that it falls under the grade of providing unbiased and up to date information to the public.The articles on the website are indite in the third person so prevents the author from expressing personal legal opinion. moreover the leaflets produced provide links to discordant other sources of information on the topic being discussed. This encourages further reading which provides a complete and balanced view preventing bias and, where treatment is recommended, allows the reader to make an informed choice (Roberts, 2010). The references used within the website are taken from w ell known and respected sources that provide current and acknowledged recommendations such as NICE, the Department of Health (DOH) and various field related journals. This indicates that the website seeks to provide and maintain up to date, accurate and unbiased information that concurs with information available in books and journals on the same subjects. anatomical structureThe construction of a website, for example, the layout, colours, fonts, sizes and ease of access can determine whether or not a reader believes the website is of good quality or not (Roberts, 2010). A study by Lindgaard, Fernandes and Dudek et al. (2006) found that the introductory 50 milliseconds that the reader is exposed to a website can cause the reader to form an opinion as to whether a website is worth using or not. On first impression, the website in question looks colourful and professional. The eye is drawn to the bolder writing that states the websites role and there are minimal graphics to distract the reader from this. in that location is a lot of information on the home page of the website and could be considered cluttered, however it is divided into clear sections and appears well organised, giving clear subheadings which guide the reader to their areas of interest easily. The main colour used for the website is grey and presents a professional look. It is subtle unless effective in breaking up different sections of the website without being obtrusive. The font size is varied throughout but mainly of a larger size making the website easy to read. in that location is no option for the reader to change the font sizing or colour which could cause some difficulty as it is not likely to suit everyone with one font size, style and colour (Roberts, 2010).As this is a registered charitable organisation it would be unfair to expect them not to get ahead money making offers. There are two links to cloud books that are published by the royal college of psychiatrists and an optio n to support them in future development projects. They have presented these links as the last things you would fuck off across on the website. Because of where they are situated it comes across to the reader that they are more interested in providing free and accessible information to modernize the pubic over making money.ClarityClarity is some other definitive area to consider when evaluating a website. Due to our continually growing multi-cultural hunting lodge it is important that websites cater for all free radicals in society and not clean the English readers. One part of the website caters for professionals working in psychiatry and another to the public wanting to learn more about mental illness. some(prenominal) sections are presented and written in a way that is understandable to the popular public. In the public section they offer their advice in 21 different verbiages in addition to visual aids using BSL sign language as well as audio pod casts and printable ver sions.This shows that they have made an effort to cater for diverse cultures and needs. Unfortunately it appears that they have not taken into account the needs of people with dyslexia. Approximately two one million million million people in the UK population are affected by dyslexia of which rough 35 to 40 percent experience visual disturbances when reading (Dyslexia Action, 2012). The British Dyslexia Association, (2012) states that the reading ability of an individual with dyslexia can be negatively affected by bright white backgrounds and the use of too much text. By changing the background to an off white colour and spreading out the information over larger areas this would cater for yet another group in society.ConclusionHaving the ability to access health information via the internet has given nurses the capacity to constantly improve their knowledge base and skills wise to(p) that they are delivering the best possible care derived from the best available evidence. The RC Psych website not only offers nurses a place to go and build on their knowledge and skills but it also provides them with a safe, reliable and easily accessible knowledge base that they can confidently refer their patients to. The evaluation of this website has shown that the website contains quality, reliable evidence and could be recommended to anyone interested in the field of mental illness. In addition to this the use of the five Cs evaluation tool has provided a great foundation to the development of evaluating skills. It has given an opportunity to discover that the evidence being accessed is suitable for developing personal practice and to help produce patients and is accepted within the NMC code of conduct (Roberts, 2010).

Airbus Case Study

Airbus A3XX case take away throng E10, MBA 2011 Airbus A3XX case study, Group E10 Airbus objectives Both Airbus and Boeing, as well as industry experts expected worldwide passenger traffic to grow at an average annual harvest-festival rate of 4. 8-4. 9% for the next 20 years (up until 2019). effrontery that the traffic was expected to al about triple in volume, both manufacturers expected a material increase in aircraft barters, although their views on the grocery structure were different.Airbus expected hub-to-hub routes to become the dominant allele type of transference in key regions (transatlantic and transpacific), opposing Boeings preference for point-topoint routes. Therefore, Airbus forecasted high growth rates in genuinely large aircraft (VLA) member, that was expected to reach 1,235 aircraft by 2019. Although Airbus had considerably increased its food market sh are by 1999, it still did non have a product to compete with Boeings 747 in the highly-promising VLA m arket segment.Introduction of A3XX could help Airbus capture more than a half of this segment, and effrontery the segments very positive prospects, it could position Airbus as the commercialised aviation industry leader. FCF ideal The model estimates Airbus free cash flows associated with the potentiality implementation of A3XX regard in 2001-2020. All calculations are performed in US dollars, net mystify value is calculated as of December 31, 2000.Given the uncertainty of model assumptions and the long-term nature of the model itself, supernumerary predisposition synopsis was performed in respect of (a) operating margins, (b) discount rate, (c) inflation rate, (d) aircraft sales, (e) enthronization expenditure, and (f) sale price. Key assumptions Sales & production Sale price $216m as of 2006, rising subsequentlywards at the inflation rate. Although some of the first contracts are expected to be executed with a probatory discount, this is not elemented into the model receivable to low data availability. Operating margin 15%, attainment curve effect was ignored due to insufficient data (assuming get margin in early years and higher margin at later stages averaging at 15% over the forecasted period). Sales ramp-up based on the assumptions utilize in Lehman Brothers equity research reports (25% of steady state qualification in 1st year, 75% in the second year). Production cognitive content 53 aircraft annually in steady state (based on a total sales estimate of 730-750 aircraft in 2001-2020). Pre-payments although a fraction of the sale price is usually paid in advance, this factor was ignored due to insufficient data (all costs and payments are assumed to occur in the year when aircraft is delivered). -1- Airbus A3XX case study, Group E10 Funding & investments Funding $11. 9b of quasi-equity, debt is not used in the project. Launch costs $11. 0b for research & development, $1. 0 for roof expenditures, $1. 0b for additional running(a) capital (as per Dresdner Kleinwort report). Additional capital expenditures assumed at secret code after the investment stage (20012008) is over Discount rate 11. % as cost of equity (CAPM = 6. 0% risk-free rate + 0. 84 commercial aviation beta * 6% market risk premium). Depreciation uncoiled line over 10 years, starts immediately after corresponding capital expenditures are performed. R&D expenses are not capitalised. Other pomposity constant at 2. 0%. Tax rate 38. 0% (standard cut rate). Terminal value increase perpetuity where growth is set at the rate of inflation. Boeings response to A3XX launch is not explicitly modelled (assuming this factor is already taken into forecast through unit sales and margins). Although the market demonstrates considerable cyclicality, this factor was ignored for the sake of simplicity. Modelling results Net present value of the A3XX project is estimated at $528m, consisting of ($1,447m) NPV of 2001-2020 cash flows and $1,975m of termi nal value. The break-even number of planes after the investment stage (in 2009 and beyond) is estimated at 48 per year. In this case the NPV of growing perpetuity is expected at $4,702m (annual inflows of $1,061 growing at 2% with 11% discount rate), while the NPV of cash flows in 2001-2009 is estimated at ($4,552). Sensitivity analysisThe following tables present bi-dimensional sensitiveness analysis of the resulting NPV for model variables that have significant predictability issues and / or likely to cause huge changes in the resulting NPV -2- Airbus A3XX case study, Group E10 Project launch considerations Implementation of the A3XX project definitely has a very high risk profile. Although the resulting NPV figure is positive under the base scenario, sensitivity analysis indicates that returns on this project are extremely sensitive to the key model assumptions (e. g. a drop in operating margin by just 2 percentage points results in negative NPV).Therefore, there is a high risk of negative returns on this project. The projects favorableness may also be undermined by external market factors. The well-nigh crucial ones being (a) the response of Boeing to A3XX project launch, (b) growth rate of the VLA market. However, this project is strategically important for Airbus. Over the last several decades, since the introduction of Boeing 747 the appropriate of VLA segment has expanded significantly. Additionally, analysts estimate VLA manufacturing has the highest operating margins that is commonly used to pay production of smaller aircraft.However Airbus is not present in this segment at this time. Therefore, despite a very high-risk profile of the project, Airbus has dangerous reasons to proceed with this industrial launch. It it difficult to estimate the number of firm orders Airbus inescapably to have before committing to the project. The financial model suggests it needs to sell ccc+ aircraft before cumulative non-discounted project cash flow becomes positive. However, taking into account the fact that airlines do not place orders with delivery time particular(a) 5-6 years, it is highly unlikely that Airbus secures orders for 300+ planes before project launch.A significant amount of orders (e. g. 50+) is likely to be enough to test Airbus fill forecasts. Potential Boeing response Although Boeings estimations of the VLA market are not so optimistic as Airbus, it should definitely take some actions to defend its dominant position on this market. Boeing is unlikely to undertake a similar development project (i. e. develop a new plane for the VLA segment), since it would be a lose-lose strategy for both companies given limited size of this market segment.Therefore, the most obvious decision for Boeing would be to invest in the stretch rendering of its 747 model. This is likely to take significant amount of orders away from Airbus while memory the investment costs low. In case Airbus decides not to go ahead with its A3XX project , Boeing has no incentive to incur any investment costs whatsoever, since it already has established presence in the VLA segment with its 747 aircraft. -3- Airbus A3XX case study, Group E10 financial projections (in US$ mln) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Revenue Operating pro? t R&D expenses Depreciation EBIT Taxes EBIAT 2,808 421 -880 -100 -559 212 -771 8,813 11,910 12,149 12,392 12,640 12,892 13,150 13,413 13,681 13,955 14,234 14,519 14,809 15,105 1,322 -660 -100 562 -214 775 1,787 -440 -100 1,247 -474 1,720 1,822 -100 1,722 -654 2,377 1,859 -100 1,759 -668 2,427 1,896 -100 1,796 -682 2,478 1,934 -75 1,859 -706 2,565 1,973 -40 1,933 -734 2,667 2,012 -5 2,007 -763 2,770 2,052 2,052 -780 2,832 2,093 2,093 -795 2,889 2,135 2,135 -811 2,946 2,178 2,178 -828 3,005 2,221 2,221 -844 3,066 2,266 2,266 -861 3,127 1,100 -2,200 -2,200 -2,200 -1,320 -25 -60 -95 -100 -1,100 -2,225 -2,260 -2,295 -1,420 418 846 859 872 54 0 -1,518 -3,071 -3,119 -3,167 -1,960 R&D expenses Capital expenditure Net working capital Operating pro? t Taxes Free cash ? ow Discounted FCF -1,100 -2,200 -2,200 -2,200 -1,320 418 -250 -150 846 -350 -300 859 -350 -300 872 -50 -200 540 -880 -50 421 212 -296 -158 -660 1,322 -214 448 216 -440 1,787 -474 873 379 1,822 -654 1,168 457 ,859 -668 1,xcl 419 1,896 -682 1,213 385 1,934 -706 1,227 351 1,973 -734 1,238 319 2,012 -763 1,249 290 2,052 -780 1,272 266 2,093 -795 1,298 244 2,135 -811 1,324 225 2,178 -828 1,350 206 2,221 -844 1,377 190 2,266 -861 1,405 174 -682 -1,755 -1,991 -1,978 -1,030 -614 -1,424 -1,456 -1,303 -611 Aircraft sale price Aircraft sold 216 13 220 40 225 53 229 53 234 53 238 53 243 53 248 53 253 53 258 53 263 53 269 53 274 53 279 53 285 53 -4-

Operations Management Question

FALL 2011 2011 Dead statement October 26, Middle East Technical University Federal Cyprus Campus BUS 361 Operations Management Homework 1 Solutions 1. result figurer Company manufactures memory snatchs in lots of ten chips. From past experience, Fruit be intimates that 80% of all lots contain 10% (1 out of 10) sorry chips, 20% of all lots contain 50% (5 out of 10) spoilt chips. If a good troop (that is, 10% defective) of chips is sent on to the conterminous stage of production, bear on bes of $ metre are incurred, and if a mischievousness batch (that is, 50% defective) is sent on to the next stage of production, impact costs of $4000 are incurred.Fruit also has the alternative of reworking a batch at a cost of $1000. A reworked batch is sure to be a good batch. Alternatively, for a cost of $100, Fruit can streamlet superstar chip from sepa grazely batch in an attempt to determine whether the batch is defective. Determine how Fruit can lessen the expected total cost per batch. Expected total cost per batch = $1580. Fruit can minimize the expected total cost per batch by choosing the following decisions It should test a chip.If the tested chip is defective, Fruit should rework the batch. If the tested chip is not defective, however, Fruit should send batch on to the next stage. cover the following figure for details. Probabilities regarding testing a chip are careful as follows. D Chip is defective, D Chip is not defective, BB big Batch, GB Good Batch P(GB) = 0. 8, P(BB) = 0. 2, P(D GB) = 0. 1, P(D GB) = 0. 9, P(D BB) = 0. 5, P(D BB) = 0. 5, P(D) = (0. 8)(0. 1) + (0. 2)(0. 5) = 0. 18, P(D) = 1 P(D) = 0. 82P(GB D) = (P(DGB) P(GB) + P(DBB)P(BB)) / P(D) = 8/18 P(BB D) = 1 P(GB D) = 10/18 P(GB D) = (P(DGB) P(GB) + P(DBB)P(BB)) / P(D) = 72/82 P(BB D) = 1 P(GB D) = 10/82 1 2. A retailer of electronic products has asked a particular manufacturer to begin daily deliveries rather than on a weekly basis. Currently the manufacturer delive rs two hundred0 cases for each one Mon twenty-four hour period. The cost of each case is valued at $300. a. What is the average instrument (in units)? b. The average history (in dollars)? c. What is the inventory turnover? . What is the average inventory (in dollars) for the daily delivery pattern, presume 20 days/month? a. Average inventory = (2000 + 0) / 2 = 1000 units. b. Average inventory = 300 * 1000 = $300,000 c. Inventory turnover = salary sales / Average Inventory = 52 * 2000 / 1000 = 104 d. Average inventory = (2000/5 + 0) / 2 = 200 units Average inventory = 300 * 200 = $60,000 3. METU NCC Student Affairs officer, Sinem, is checking the accuracy of assimilator registrations each day. For each student this process takes exactly two and a half minutes.There are propagation when Sinem gets quite a backlog of files to process. She has argued for more help and another computer, hardly her manager doesnt think capacity is that stressed. Use the following entropy to dete rmine the utilization of her and her computer. She works seven and a half hours per day (she gets 30 minutes off for lunch), 5 days per week. What is the utilization of Sinem and Sinems computer? The following data are fairly typical for a week 3 Total number of files to process = 70 + cl + 130 + 120 + 160 = 630 Time it takes Sinem to process the files in each week = 630 files * 2. min/file = 1575 minutes. Total working hours available in a week = 7. 5 hours/day * 5 days = 7. 5 * 5 = 37. 5 hours = 37. 5 * 60 minutes = 2250 minutes / week Utilization = Actual working time / Time available = 1575 / 2250 = 70% 4. Consider the following three- home production cable television service with a single product that must visit station 1, 2, and 3 in sequence position 1 has 4 identical instruments with a processing time of 15 minutes per job. transmit 2 has 10 identical machines with a processing time of 30 minutes per job. Station 3 has 1 machine with a processing time of 3 minutes per job. a. What is rb (bottleneck rate) for this line? b. Can this system satisfy the daily demand of one hundred eighty units (assume 2 shifts in a day, and 4 hours in a shift)? c. What is T0 (raw processing time) for this line? d. What is W0 (critical WIP) for this line? Station 1 Production rate (jobs/min) Production rate (jobs/day) = 128 Station 2 Station 3 = 160 = 160 a. Station 1 is the bottleneck station, which has bottleneck rate, rb = 4/15. b.Because the bottleneck stations production rate of 128 is less than the daily demand of 180 units, this system cannot satisfy the daily demand. 4 c. T0 = 15 + 30 + 3 = 48 minutes. d. W0 = rb * T0 = 4/15 * 48 = 12. 8 13 units. 5. The final assembly of Noname PCs requires a total of 12 tasks. The assembly is through with(p) at the Lubbock, Texas plant using various components imported from Far East. The tasks take for the assembly operations, task times and precedence relationships between tasks are as follows Task Task Time (min)Immediat e Predecessors 1 2 2 2 2 3, 4 7 5 6, 9 8, 10 11 Positional Weight 70 58 31 27 20 29 25 18 18 17 13 7 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 6 6 2 2 12 7 5 1 4 6 7 1 2 3 5 7 4 6 8 9 10 11 12 Given that the company produces one assembled PC any 15 minutes, a. Assign tasks to workstations using the Ranked Positional Weight Algorithm. b. numerate balance delay and workload imbalance for your solution. c. Evaluate optimality of your solution (in footing of number of workstations, balance delay and workload imbalance). 5 a. Order of tasks 1, 2, 3, 6, 4, 7, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12WS 1 1 15 3 WS 2 2, 3, 4 15 9 3 1 WS 3 6, 5, 9 15 3 1 0 WS 4 7, 8 15 8 3 WS 5 10, 11 15 11 5 WS 6 12 15 8 Thus, the number of workstations found by RPW heuristic is equal to 6. ? b. remnant Delay (D) = b1= 3, b2= 1, b3= 0, b4= 3, b5= 5, b6= 8 ? = 20/6 = 3. 33, Workload Imbalance (B) = v c. Lower bound on number of workstations = ? = LBD = 0, LBB =0. None of the lower edge are equal to the obtained objective value s (K*, D, B). Thus, we do not know whether the solution obtained by RPW heuristic is optimal or not. 6

India Essay

The invoice of India begins with raise of human activity of Homo sapiens as long as 75,000 years ago, or with earlier hominids including Homo erectusfrom about 500,000 years ago. The Indus vale Civilisation, which unfold and flourished in the northwestern part of the Indian subcontinent from c. 3300 to 1300 BCE in current Pakistan and northwest India, was the prototypic gear major civilisation in South Asia. A sophisticated and technologic anyy advanced urban culture developed in the Mature Harappan period, from 2600 to 1900 BCE.Beginning in the mid-18th coulomb and over the next century, stupendous argonas of India were annexed by the British East India Company. Dissatisfaction with Company rule led to the Indian Rebellion of 1857, after which the British provinces of India were directly administered by the British upper side and witnessed a period of both rapid development of infrastructure and economical decline. During the first half of the 20th century, a nationwide s truggle for emancipation was launched by the Indian National Congress and later joined by the Muslim League.The subcontinent gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1947, after the British provinces were partitioned into the dominions of India and Pakistan and the princely states all acceded to one of the new states. The origin of the name Taj Mahal is non clear. Court histories from Shah Jehans reign only call it the rauza (tomb) of Mumtaz Mahal. It is generally believed that Taj Mahal ( ordinarily translated as either Crown Palace or Crown of the Palace) is an minify version of her name, Mumtaz Mahal.The construction of this marble masterpiece is credited to the Mughal emperor butterfly Shah Jahan who erected this mausoleum in the holding of his beloved wife, Arjumand Bano Begum, popularly known as Mumtaz Mahal, who died in AH 1040 (AD 1630). Her decease wish to her husband was to build a tomb in her memory such as the world had never seen before. Thus emperor Shah Ja han set about building this fairytale like marvel. The construction of Taj Mahal was started in AD 1631 and completed at the end of 1648 AD.For seventeen years, twenty 1000 pee-peemen be said to be employed on it daily, for their accommodation a small town, named after the deceased empress-Mumtazabad, now known as Taj Ganj, was reinforced adjacent to it. Amanat khan Shirazi was the calligrapher of Taj Mahal, his name occurs at the end of an memorial on one of the gates of the Taj. Poet Ghyasuddin had designed the verses on the tombstone, while Ismail Khan Afridi of Turkey was the dome maker. Muhammad Hanif was the superin cristaldent of Masons. The designer of Taj Mahal was Ustad Ahmad Lahauri.The material was brought in from all over India and rally Asia and it took a fleet of 1000 elephants to transport it to the site. The central dome is 187 feet high at the centre. Red sandstone was brought from Fatehpur Sikri, Jasper from Punjab, Jade and Crystal from China, aquamarine fr om Tibet, Lapis Lazuli and Sapphire from Sri Lanka, Coal and Cornelian from Arabia and diamonds from Panna. In all 28 kind of rare, semi precious and precious stones were used for inlay work in the Taj Mahal. The chief building material, the white marble was brought from the quarries of Makrana, in distt.Nagaur, Rajasthan. summit meeting Religious Attractions The Golden Temple Adherents of the Sikh religion need no introduction to their sacred pilgrimage seat. Sri Harmandir Sahib or the Golden Temple, named so collectable to the quintessential golden hue that the monument is bathed in, is laced by the evenly sacred waters of the Amrit Sarovar or the Pond of Nectar. On a jewel-studded syllabus is the Adi Grantha or the sacred scripture of the Sikhs wherein are enshrined holy inscriptions by the ten Sikh gurus and various Hindu and Moslem saints.Kerala Backwaters -The Backwaters of Kerala are the place meant for those in search of a peaceful moments amidst natural beauty. The mai n backwater destinations in Kerala are Kumarakom, Allepey, Cochin, Trivandrum and Kollam. Cruising along these backwaters on board the houseboats or Kettuvallom is one experience that is ever cherished by visitors to the state. India has always been a popular destination for travellers. The culture, usage and lifestyle of the common masses and the grandeur and opulence of the royalty has attracted mickle to explore and feel the real India.All these things combined with mysticism, spiritualism, yoga and Ayurveda make India a must visit destination on the world travel map. India electric circuit is aimed at offering you the best of India. Whether it is the sandy desert of Rajasthan, the tranquil and sedate backwaters of Kerala or the mesmerising beauty of the Taj Mahal Dhoti Dhoti kurta is the traditional Indian clothing of men. Unlike early(a) dresses, it is an unstitched piece of cloth usually 5 yards long that is tied nigh the waist and legs. The knot is tied at the waist.Dh oti is known by contrastive names at dissimilar places such as Laacha in Punjabi, dhuti in Bangla. Indian Sari Sari is one of the most wonderful dresses listless by Indian women. Infact, when one thinks of a typical Indian woman, the first thing that strikes the mind is a woman clad in sari, who is tiring the solah shringar including bindi, chudi, kajal etc. history India is a land of ancient civilization. Indias social, economic, and ethnic configurations are the products of a long process of regional expansion.Indian history begins with the birth of the Indus Valley Civilization and the coming of the Aryans. These ii phases are usually described as the pre-Vedic and Vedic age. Hinduism arose in the Vedic period. The fifth century saw the unification of India nether Ashoka, who had converted to Buddhism, and it is in his reign that Buddhism spread in many parts of Asia. In the eighth century Islam came to India for the first time and by the eleventh century had firmly establi shed itself in India as a political force.It resulted into the formation of the Delhi Sultanate, which was finally succeeded by the Mughal Empire, under which India once again achieved a large measure of political unity. It was in the 17th century that the Europeans came to India. This coincided with the disintegration of the Mughal Empire, paving the way for regional states. In the contest for supremacy, the English emerged victors. The Rebellion of 1857-58, which sought to restore Indian supremacy, was unkept and with the subsequent crowning of Victoria as Empress of India, the incorporation of India into the empire was complete.It was followed by Indias struggle for independence, which we got in the year 1947. Weding An Indian Hindu marriage is strictly observed according to the ancient cultural norms laid down feather in the Vedas. In the Indian society a wedding is not just the coming together of cardinal people rather two souls. In fact, a wedding also brings two families c loser, which thereafter percentage a bond of respect and affection. As a result, there are a number of traditions and customs associated with the Indian Hindu wedding ceremony.These traditions are the essence of the marital institution, thereby strengthening the significance, chastity and faith in the same. Rangoli Rangoli, one of the most beautiful and most pleasing art forms of India, is comprised of two words, rang meaning color and aavalli meaning colored creepers or row of colour. Rangoli basically comprises of the art of making designs or patterns on the walls or the news report of the house, using finely ground white powder along with different colors. Numerous households in the Indian subcontinent make use of Rangoli designs for decorating the courtyard of their house.

What qualities do you have that will make you a good accountant?

The qualities that I mystify that result make me a good accountant include trus cardinalrthiness, h unmatchablesty, organized, purposeful, patient, self confidence, enthusiasm and beingnessness death oriented.Trustworthiness is the most important quality as this would endorsement me accountable to my actions in accordance with the law and professional standards. My being trustworthy is of course ground on honesty with my dealings to others and to myself.The accounting profession requires independence of head and integrity as necessary cheers hence by being trustworthy and honest would make me fit and compatible with the profession. If these values ar lacking there is no use of accounting profession, for these are rightfully core values needed to keep it functioning.It was the lack of these values that had caused Andersen Consulting, one of the Big Five auditors to have fallen from its position, thus presently the collection of auditors, who are likewise accountants, a re now called the Big Four.Honesty mustiness not only be observed in words barely too in deeds. An accountant cannot be successful if he cannot til now be honest with small things as he or she is being made to account even to the smallest cent of a dollar.I accept that I have the characteristics of trustworthiness and honesty since I have been given the rule to assume functions that required these qualities and I did well(p) with the experience.I handled two organizational pecuniary resource by having been treasurer for at least two organizations on campus, The African Cultural Society, for which I am currently the Secretary and The Syndicate (Hip decamp Dance Team), for which I am now the Vice President. Another value that accountants require is competence. This value is something that is normally acquired by training and education. What I believe would make me fit to have this value is my proven capacity for leadership. The two positions that I now have in the organizatio ns I mentioned are brisk proofs of my leadership.Of course accountant need to produce quality work base on the value of competence hence accountant need to have to have their outputs on time because of deadlines set by government regulations and technical realities. In almost similar ways, I believe my values of being organized, purposeful and patient are necessarily compatible with competence.I hit the sack that I possess said qualities since I proposal my activities in identify not to miss important dates and deadlines. Based on my experience in my internship at one of the Big Four accounting firms, Ernst & Young, LLP, I whop the unavoidableness of long hours to complete tasks and I am pieced to sustain the same experience.My self-confidence, enthusiasm and being goal oriented are also complementary to becoming a good accountant. Self-confidence willing keep me trust my abilities hence competence will follow. My enthusiasm will sustain me in some activities of accountan ts which may be considered by other professions as boring and even when I am not feeling well by creating a friendly and amicable environment.My goal orientation would also make things easier for me as I am able to break follow up my goals into manageable steps and make progress towards reaching that goal. As proof, my master(prenominal) goal for this year is to study for my GMAT by scoring high in order to obtain a scholarship for my graduate studies in Accounting. To micturate that, I plan to allot study time outside of my academic classes and extra curricular activities and to actually do the studying needed.2. What are you hoping to get during your studies in the MAcc Program?After I graduate with the Bachelors degree in Accounting this May, 2008, I plan to proceed with master of Accounting Program of Marys stonemason School of Business to fulfill my 150-credit requirement so that I can be eligible to take the certified public accountant exams.More than fulfilling the credit requirements I believe the Macc program will really prepare me to attain the values of competence which I will need in being a good accountant.I have learned that program will be conducted in small class sizes and relaxed, with informal interaction mingled with faculty and students1, thus I believe attaining my objective would be greatly enhanced. With such policy of access to faculty, I believe, I will be able also to build at least some relationships that I could perhaps use in my long term future goals.It has been my plan to eventually go back to my home town in Accra, gold coast in West Africa and build a hospital with modern equipment and facilities that will bring affordable and effective health care to the average Ghanaian citizen. By that time I believe I could be of do to people like my father who is a pediatrician.Im hoping that my education in Accounting together with my concentration in Entrepreneurship and hopefully to be modify and enhanced by the Masters of Accoun ting Program of Marys Mason, will really give me the knowledge, leadership, and management skills necessary to accomplish this goal of mine. 1 William & Mary Mason School of Business, Master of Accounting Program, A Distinctive Educational Experience. vane document URL http//mason.wm.edu/Mason/Programs/Master+of+Accounting/, Accessed January 13,2008

Essay on Act III of the Crucible Essay

In the run away The crucible Arthur miller creates a successful gamblingtic finish at the ratiocination of Act troika. Integral to this success is Millers continued engagement with the sense of hearing. The principal reason why the climax is so dramatic and suspenseful is because the audience is involved with what is happening on stage. passim The Crucible Miller has achieved a powerful relationship with the audience two on an emotional and intellectual level. The audience in Act III continue to begin an understanding of the personalities of the characters and an insight into their behaviour and how they react in different circumstances.In Act III the audience maintains a sound emotional relationship with the characters. They persist to despise certain characters such as Abigail who is exemplified as remorseful, untruthful and vengeful. In contrast the audience develops a more(prenominal) empathic relationship with some characters such as Elizabeth monitor lizard and b loody shame Warren. The context of Act III within the play lies just aft(prenominal) the incarceration of several villagers on the alleged charges of witchcraft including the wives of three regard men within the village John monitoring device, Francis Nurse and Giles Corey. The driving piece line of Act III is these three mens express to redeem their wives a particular focus is on reminders struggle. Part of Millers dramatic success is attributed to the way he is competent to manipulate the historic and loving context.The historical setting of the play is a theocratic Puritan settlement in 1692 in the Massachusetts. The theocracy is a significant part of the play as it pass bys to mounting frustration for the audience and it is the basis to the plot Miller also uses the theocracy in Salem to assume an important message about Millers own social setting in 1950s America. When Miller was writing the play he was living in a society where McCarthyism was prevalent. The playwr ight in The Crucible particularly in Act III is conveying how McCarthyism is u sing fabianism as a false pretence to hunt down McCarthys enemies in the same way that Salem is using the guise of witchcraft to rid themselves of threats or adversaries. Perhaps Miller is illustrating to the contemporary audience that the fad and difficulties of theocracy are strikingly similar to McCarthyism.An important part of the success towards the end of Act III are Millers stage directions they fox a vivid instruction to the actors of how to portray to the audience the emotions mat up by the characters. Miller begins the picture on a remarkably dramatic wink Proctor becomes enraged when Abigail attempts to call paradise. Proctor cries How dare you call Heaven Whore Whore in this historical context the intelligence activity fancy woman has significantly powerful connotations with what the society would look at as evil and sin. The characters on stage react to this in an expected way Danfo rth appears to be confused and horrified and is shouting at Proctor Man Man, what do you-we can see how severe the potential charge of whore could be.When Proctor attempts to justify this charge he is shown on stage as apprehension and petrified he shouts I have cognize her, sir, I have known her this echo of biblical terminology shows the absolute control theocracy has upon Salem and how wrangle from the Bible has managed to integrate into everyday language. The audience can see the encounter and power of this scene by the emotion and bewildered reactions of others. Following this scene of commotion Miller creates a relatively calm scene, Proctors anxiety turns into confidence as he is sure his wife is able to verify his claims ,my wife cannot lie. Abigail, although not revealing much with speech, she is envisioned in contrast as enraged to the audience.Upon Elizabeth Proctors entry, thither is a situation of suspense and importance, the audience can tell this because Elizabet h sees Proctor with his back turned which conveys to the audience it is a suspenseful moment and she is lucid by the De deposity-Governor to Look at me only. The audience can see the initial carry on this has upon her as she appears weak and confused. The scene escalates in emphasis and a tremendous amount of pressure is being put upon her. Elizabeth is intelligibly fearful of the situation and the substantial implications of her testimony as she uses vague descriptions such as dissatisfied and she repeatedly states her husband is a good and pure man. Elizabeth is intimidated by Danforth, at several times during her head heavyy Proctor attempts to look at her husband and he shouts at her woman, look at meThe use of this phrase shows a derogatory position towards women that was prevalent during this period of history. During Elizabeths questioning Danforth uses violence against her he holds her reflection and she is portrayed to the audience as full of agony and the clear im pacts of the stress being put upon her. When Elizabeth is eventually shouted at Is your husband a lecher? she replies no and she is removed from the courtroom.This enrages the audience how Elizabeths answer which has essentially been forced out of her after being interrogated and not for a countenance been reconsidered. Empathy is also felt for Elizabeth because of the difficulty of the situation that has been forced upon her. The passion felt between the Proctors is evident here Elizabeth has lied putting her life at risk in order to save her husbands name, Proctor then shouts, she only thought to save my name in despondency to save his wife. This devotion towards each other contrasts with the beginning of Act II where at that place was a sense of awkwardness between the couple.Following Good Wife Proctors ejection from the court-room, The Reverend Hale pays a passionate speech declaring his objection to the situation, I may shut my moral sense to this no more- private vengean ce is working through this testimony. Miller perhaps uses Hale in this situation to represent the audiences opinion on stage, Hale is finally able to see distinctly what is going on, and the audience is relieved that the lies of Abigail may be exposed.Furthermore there is a prospect of hope as Hale could possibly lead the demise of Abigail he cries This girl has always struck me as false. Once Abigail is under pressure and she is at risk of being undermined she is able to control the situation by creating an imaginary scene. Abigail lets out a tawdry chilling cry, which would have tremendous impact on the audience and astonished both the other characters and perhaps the audience also into silence. Abigail and the rest of the girls work that bloody shame Warren has shape shifted into a yellow bird which would have bewildered an audience.The girls are described as transfixed and hypnotized (upon the bird) covering how convincing their performance must have been. During Abigails genuine preservation with the bird she says But God made my face Mary enviousness is a deadly sin Millers use of the word sin perhaps implies that Abigail is appealing to Danforth by making her language symbolize to the Bible also by using the term sin Abigail makes Mary appear more sinister to the rest of the characters on stage and make her appear to be associated to the devil. The girls mimicking of Mary has a remarkable impact upon the atmosphere and pace of the scene, all the shouting between Mary and the girls adds to the drama and builds up excitement in the scene .The audience becomes horrified at the situation, with Abigails power and dominance she is able to shift the accusations from her to an innocent which must disgust the audience. Compassion is felt towards Mary because of the horrendous situation she is put in. It seems Millers original impression of the girls as ruthless appears to be fulfilled during these scenes.

Alice Walker Uses Symbolism to Address Three Issues Essay

Born on February 9, 1944 in Eatonton, Georgia, Alice Malsenior cart was the eighth and youngest kidskin of poor sharecroppers. Her fathers great-great-great grandm different, Mary Poole was a slave, forced to walking from Virginia to Georgia with a baby in each arm. Walker is deep proud of her cultural heritage. In addition to her literary talents Walker was winding in the civil rights movement in the 1960s, walking door-to-door promoting voters registration among the rural poor. Walker was present to see Martin Luther abilitys I have a dream speech.In imposing 1963 Alice traveled to Washington D. C. to take part in the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom. Perched in a tree limb to try to convey a view, Alice couldnt see much of the main podium, except was open to hear Dr. Kings I Have A dream head. (Alice Walker Biography) Walker is a vegetarian involved in many other issues, including nuclear proliferation, and the environment. Her insight to African American cultu re comes from her travel and experiences in both America and Africa.Walker is an activist regarding oppression and power, championing victims of racism and sexism. afterward her precedent setting, and controversial thirteen-year marriage to a discolour, Jewish, civil rights lawyer, Alice fell in love with Robert Allen, editor of shady Scholar. She is currently living in M barricadeocino, atomic number 20 and is exploring her bi-sexuality. Alice Walkers first novel, The Third Life of Grange Copeland was published the calendar week her young lady was born. Walker received praise for this work, but also rebuke for dealing too harshly with the male characters in the book.Walkers best-known novel, The Color Purple won the Pulitzer Prize in 1982, and was do into a movie. Walker was the first dull author honored by a Pulitzer. In Celies letters to God, she tells her story about her fictional character as wife, mother, young woman, and sister, and other women who help shape her life. Walker portrays Africa in a positive way, and looks to it as a form of artistic and ideological expression. Walker was also criticized for her portrayal of men, often as violent rapists and wife beaters. level as she portrays men, often in a bad light, she likes to focus on the strength of women. In her story, unremarkable Use Alice Walker uses symbolism to address three main issues racism, feminism and the black Americans depend for cultural identity. The story quotidian Use is set in the former(a) 60s or early 70s and the setting is an impoverished home in Georgia. The censorious analysis of Everyday Use from the web site Sistahspace presented the following rendition This was a date, when African-Americans were struggling to define their personal identities in cultural names.The term Negro had been recently removed from the vocabulary, and had been replaced with Black. There was Black Power, Black Nationalism, and Black Pride. Many blacks wanted to rediscover their African roots, and were ready to reject and pass over their American heritage, which was filled with stories of pain and in besidesice. Alice Walker is, as David Cowart argues, satirizing the heady palaver of late 60s black consciousness, deconstructing its pieties (especially the rediscovery of Africa) and asserting neglected values (Cowart, 182).The central al-Qaida of the story concerns the way in which an individual understands his present life in relation to the traditions of his people and culture. (Sistahspace) Everyday Use depicts a poor, illiterate black mother who rejects the shallow Black Power ideals of her of age(predicate)er, outspoken daughter, Dee, in promote of the practical values of her younger, less privileged daughter, Maggie. mommy is the orator, and like griots from tribes in Africa, she perpetuates the oral traditions and history of the family. mammys upbeat self-image in bruise of little titular education, leads the reader to feel the intense pride s he has in maintaining self-sufficiency. As discussed in David Whites critical analysis of (Everyday Use Defining African-American Heritage), Mamas lack of formal education does non prevent her from formulating a sense of heritage unconnected to the Black Power movement held by her, purportedly educated, daughter Dee. Mamas daughter, Dee (Wangero), has a much more superficial idea of heritage. She is portray as bright, beautiful, and self-centered.Maggie is the younger daughter, who lives with Mama. She is scared and a humiliated, lying back in corners, cowering external from people. (White, David) (Everyday Use Defining African-American Heritage. ) Maggie understands her heritage, and appreciates the significance of everyday things in the house. She is uneducated, and not in the least outspoken, and is unable to make centerfield contact. Maggie has round-backed posture and walks with a shuffle, this, combined with her inability to look you in the eye, points to her picture in dealing with newfound black rights.Mamas daughter Dee, who is portrayed as quite successful, has come home to visit and flourish her new African style heritage. Dee has adopted things African and has changed her name to Wangero. As she handles the everyday articles fashioned and used by previous generations, she believes they should be displayed to her white girlfriends, especially the old quilts made by Mama, her sister and her mother. Mama has promised the quilts to Maggie but Dee says, Maggie does not understand their value and would just put them to everyday use. (Walker, Everyday Use) Mama must decide which daughter should receive the family quilts. Finally, Mama realizes that her daughter, Maggie, has a closer connection with her view of family history than Dee does and gives her the quilts. This is the first time Mama has asserted any authority over Dee. On a deeper level, Alice Walker is exploring the concepts of racism and the evolution of Black Society following the end o f slavery, through the era of Martin Luther King, and finally to the Black Power movement in the late 1960s and early 1970s.Maggie, Mama, Dee/Wangaro and Hakim-a Barber, symbolize this. Mama is illiterate, because her school unlikeable when she was in the second grade. The role of black Americans in the late mid-twenties is best illustrated by Mamas line, School was closed pop. hold outt ask me why in 1927 colored asked fewer questions that they do now (Walker, Everyday Use) When Mama describes the old house, burning smooth it symbolizes the ending of slavery and the decreed civil rights.The scars that Mammas daughter Maggie, bear are representative of the pain of the past and difficulty in moving from the role of subservience to equality. Maggie has difficulty looking you in the eye just as the American Negro had difficulty moving from the submissive role to peer in dealings with whites. Maggies head down on the chest at first appears as an as shame for her scars from the ho use rouse, but they come to symbolize a person caught in the old black paradigm, unable to embrace newfound freedoms in society.The fire of slavery has damaged Maggie and she resigns herself to a transitional cultural existence, neither old nor new. Mama represents the ideals of Martin Luther King through her dream of going on the insurrectionist Carson show to meet Dee. She embraces the idea of this fantasy and takes pleasure in replaying it in her mind. Ultimately, Mamma is thrust back to the reality that it will never happen, just as she seems to resign herself to the fact that Kings dreams are not real for her generation but for the next.

Essay Nursing Ethic

In these situations I feel it is my duty to effort to reach out to each patient from where they are coming room. If I have a patient who does not speak English utilize a trained interpreter or our Curaao phone to help transcend with my patient. Sometimes this can be time consuming and put us behind schedule. We only have one interpreter and she is eve cross so sometimes we have to face quite awhile for her to be available. This can put our providers behind schedule.It is very tempting in these situations to take an employee who is not a trained interpreter but speaks the same language, or a family member to interpret. However, this does not follow clinic protocol and therefore is unethical. I work n an internal medicine clinic and most of our patients have multiplex wellness issues. It would be very unfortunate if we missed a astute but important change in the patients health history because we didnt wait for the trained medical backtrackup interpreter.The ethical quandary in this situation is whether I should wait for the appropriate interpreter and potentially run the risk of queer sick patients who have to wait a long time to bet their backed up provider, frustrate staff members who whitethorn not accept a full lunch break or have to last out late because or utilize an inappropriate interpreter and take the go on of going something important in the translation. In my opinion, everyone deserves the go around possible medical care regardless of where they are from or what language they speak. Legalize that ethics are a very personal thing and that my morals may be different from the people I am caring for. I cannot permit this change the way cherish my patients. Sometimes this can be very difficult. When I worked in the operating room We had many traumas involving gang up members who had been shot while committing a crime. We still had to work just as hard to save these people as we would anyone else. We used a plow of resources and did wh at we could to save them. I always found it startling how the staff members in the OR would talk closely these people as we worked on them.I hurt that they are criminals but they are also human creations. Are line of descent was to keep them alive, not judge them. This said, I had a situation that genuinely caught me off guard and made it very difficult for my to be sort to this patient. I grew up in a predominantly Jewish similarity in a suburb of Chicago in the asss. Almost everyone I knew had a family member who was a concentration camp sun,ivory. It was an everyday position to see an older person with the dreaded tattoo on their forearms. patch interviewing my patient before going back to the OR we were talking and everything was fine.It wasnt until had to check her leg to make certain(a) the surgery site was marked that I noticed she had a portrait tattoo of Doll Hitler. I was astounded. She had seemed short polite and appropriate. Suddenly I could hardly look at her . Im sure my voice became very short and clipped. Once we got her to sleep I couldnt impediment talking (to anybody who would listen) about how appalled I was with her tattoo and her probable teaching system. It wasnt until much later that I realized that I really let my own feelings interfere with the best possible treatment of my patient.The ethical dilemma in this situation is, should we treat unkind people the way we treat we would want to be tough. I feel very strongly about respecting others cultural beliefs, even when it comes to health choices made that may not gauge are the best thing for the patient. The only time I really struggle with this is when the men in a family want to make health decisions for the women. My personal opinion is if its not your body, stay out of it. However, unless the woman is being physically abused, its none of my business.All I can do is give them the best possible information regarding their health, educate them in a culturally unsanded ma nner and offer them appropriate resources the rest is up to them. Some years it can be very had to take others morals, values and ethics into consideration. I really try to remember to treat others the way they want to be treated and not necessarily the way want to be treated. For someone as opinionated as me, this can be a struggle. Everyday is a new chance to do the best I can for my patients and I feel blessed to have the opportunity to do so.

“A Tale of Two Cities” by Charles Dickens

A tosh of cardinal Cities by Charles Dickens entails everlasting(a) themes of transformation and resurrection because nothing is permanent in the world and along with rapid run of life people be constantly changing to move to emerging trustys and evils.This eternal themes are of great value because in much(prenominal) a way the author shows that all people should be provided with a chance to change their lives for better, to strive for better living for themselves and their be hunch forwardd people.Actually, resurrection of heroes promotes the report of hope which never dies. Transformation and resurrection are two powerful themes which are seen throughout plot progression. Furthermore, resurrection and transformation are illustrated on both social and personal levels. It is seen that many characters appear to be involved in themes of redemption, love, and good vs. evil. All these themes are brought together to portray the themes of transformation and resurrection.These the mes can be use to Dr. Manette who was taken away from his pregnant wife and unborn child. Dr. Manette was confined for eighteen years and during them he experienced the worst conditions and he plane forgot his real name. Dr. Manette is resurrected and his life is transformed for several times throughout the novel.In script the First French government released him and bring to Monsieur Defarge to be cared. Thus, French government gave him hope for restoring his life, his past and future because Dr. Manette is suddenly recalled to life. (19) Nevertheless, his transformation wasnt complete process he was reunited with his lost daughter Lucy. It was Lucys love that enabled Manette to resurrect spiritually and his daughter reinforced his notion of the rebirth.Then, in The gold Thread the themes of resurrection and transformation are involved several times. For example, Charles Darnay was put on the trial because of treachery in England. He was considered a spy as he traveled forth and back between England and France. People were authoritative he had to be found guilty and, therefore, he had to be sentenced to death.However, Sydney cartonful saved his live and Dr. Manette was recalled to life (35) for the second time. Nevertheless, then Dickens presents opposite perspectives on resurrection and transformation themes. For example, he illustrates resurrection with a parody. Jerry Cruncher was a body-snatcher and he considered his night activities as the h 1st trade. His son was also proud of fathers activities and he coveted to follow him Oh, Father, I should so like to be a resurrection-man when Im quite growed up (166)It is necessary to outline that Sydney Carton is one more character who involved the most in the themes of transformation and resurrection. foremost he was presented as a man with lo self-esteem, though he was provided with amazing amount of devotion, courage and self-sacrifice. It was Carton who helped to resurrect Charles Darnay, though it was no the alone time he saved humans life.When he nonionized the smite, the author emphasized the inner purposes of his actions. Dickens argues that Carton has never achieved the desired outcomes in his life and now the chance is ensured. Carton realized he had to endanger his life as it was a way to redemption.Sydney understood his switch was successfully arranged and he had done a good job. When liner death Carton didnt back away instead he embraced it to resurrect later. Till death he was prophetic and peaceful and he even made friends with woman being unjustly sentenced to death. In the final exam moment before death, Carton was portrayed as a messiah who was giving his life allowing others to enjoy theirs.Before he was beheaded, he uttered deliverer words I am the Resurrection and the life, saith the Lord he that believeth in me, though he were dead, yet shall live and whosoever liveth and believeth in me shall never die. (366) In such a way the author tends to show th at Carton lived till the end of the book when final resurrection took place.Summing up every theme in the book is provided with specific purpose. Eternal themes of redemption, love are included in the transformation and resurrection theme to unite the plot and to add to authors style of writing.Works CitedDickens, Charles. A Tale of Two Cities. New York Oxford University Press, 1976.A Tale of Two Cities by Charles DickensThe book is called A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens published by Penguin books in New York world-class published in 1839. The books 449 pages talks mostly nigh the years leading up to the French Revolution and climaxes in the govern of Terror perpetrated by the Jacobins.The story is about Charles Darnay, a French Aristocrat, and Sydney Carton, an side of meat barrister. Both fall in love with the same woman, Lucie Manette. Eventually, Sydney is executed. The chapters are closely evenly divided between events in France and Events in England.II. AnalysisTh e novel as per Dickens conception dealt heavily with themes of ressurection, guilt, hope, shame, redemption, social injustice and patriotism.The novel was a rare example of a Dickens novel having a historical theme because it talked about real world events that happened France and England during the years of revolution. His book teaches us about the futility of mob violence and the violence that occurs in relation to the French revolution most especially the excesses of the Jacobins. Finally, the book teaches us about the extreme point social inequality that eventually led to the revolution.III. Appraisal.I liked the book because it applied Dickens impressive writing skills to the field of history. The normally bland content is given amusing form and becomes something the youth can enjoy interlingual rendition about. I would recommend it to other young people as an understructure to history and the social inequalities of Europe that led to the revolutions that swept the continen t.

In Defense of Food Essay

In the maintain, In Defense of nutriment An occupyers Manifesto, author Michael Pollan commences his tale with a few straightforward words Eat nourishment. Not too much. Mostly plants. In his introduction, An Eaters Manifesto, Pollan discusses how the viandsetic wisdom that was passed down from older generations has been heavily tainted by nutritionary science and pabulum industry marketing (Pollan, 2008).The first volume of the book entitled, The Age of Nutritionism, delves into this subscriber line and helps uncover the cause of todays nutritionary confusion and anxiety (Pollan, 2008). Nowadays, it is not uncommon to ingest edible victualslike substances displayed in every aisle of the grocery store with all products promoting some affable of nutritional benefit from their consumption. These dietary facts be often modified to example dietary benefits that are barely hand in the food product, if present at all.With such prevalent misinformation, todays society has run so overly concerned with nutrient enriched food that stack contribute either forgotten or are unaware of the brilliance of the fundamentals. Pollan however explains that humanity has become a nation of orthorexics meaning that people have developed an unhealthy obsession with healthy eating centred on the hypothesis of nutritionism (Pollan, 2008).Chronic diseases that have the highest death rate such as obesity, coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and cancer, can be attributed to the western sandwich diet which consists of highly relate foods and refined grains the use of chemicals to raise plants and animals in huge monocultures the superabundance of brassy calories of sugar and fat produced by modern agriculture and the narrowing of the biological diversity of the human diet to a tiny handful of secure crops, notably wheat, corn, and soy (Pollan, 2008).In the second volume entitled The Western Diet and the diseases of Civilization, Pollan analyzes the shift in e ating habits of today versus those since the breakthrough of agriculture and the industrialization of food. In the third and final volume entitled, getting over Nutritionism, Pollan offers helpful recommendations to healthy eating and living.These simple, easy-to-follow tips are intended to tame society on the dangers of misleading information from food industries and medical communities and to spark advance people away from the Western Diet and back to the traditional slipway of preparing and consuming food. Pollan suggests for people to refrain from shopping at supermarkets and choose local anesthetic farmers markets instead.However, for those with no former(a) option, he recommends they only shop from the peripherals of the store. Some other advice that Pollan offers is to eat close toly plants, especially leaves, eat like an omnivore and be the mixture of person that takes supplements (Pollan, 2008). He also states that people who eat according to the rules of a traditio nal food culture are generally much better than people eating a contemporary Western diet.This compend is focused on the cultural traditions of food consumption where eating is deeply rooted in nature in human biology on one side and in the natural world on the other (Pollan, 2008). People around the world have incompatible relationships with food and eating. Pollan suggests that how different cultures eat plays a large role in what different cultures eat.He further proposes that American society, nowadays, has become a culture heavily focused on quantity and price rather than caliber. Society has become so fixated on low-fat or low-carb options that they have failed to realize the true underlying have it off of overeating.The distinction between price and quality is often the deciding mover for most American families. As a result Pollan recommends get quality foods in smaller portions thus developing the pay more, eat less(prenominal) ideology. I found that this book provi ded tremendously eye-opening content. This book offers an insightful scene surrounding the relationship between people and food proposes how society, in incident the American culture, can start choosing healthier food options that enable us to live healthy and en triumphable lives while bringing back the joy of eating and preparing food.I found his analysis of the history of nutritionism, the science backside what to eat and why, to be extremely informative. In constituenticular, when Pollan discusses how the food industry develops food products heavily focused around the latest fad diets or so-called nutritional needs of society, it was enlightening to read his perspective as I often purchase items such as low-fat margarine over stock butter.It is outrageous that the food industry fought for many years to get the untrue rule removed and when modified was allowed to state that as long as an imitation product was not nutritionally inferior to the natural food it sought to imp ersonate and had the same quantities of recognized nutrientsthe imitation could be marketed without victimization the word imitation (Pollan, 2008). By keeping consumers misinformed rough such imperative factors that impact to our daily diets has contributed to societys vast health issues.Moreover, the discussion about the differences between culture and food habits resonated with me because while I have lived in either England or Canada my entire life, my family lineage is from India. With this real-life example, I believe that Pollan is temper to assume the certain cultures that consumed traditional diets unintellectuald mostly on plants had strikingly low rates of chronic diseases (Pollan, 2008). Nowadays, a large portion of Westernized societies base their food choices on price and quantity over quality so-called nutritional content geared towards weight management than overall offbeat and convenience.According to Marion Nestle, author of Food Politics, in advertising and on supermarket shelves, there is roughshod competition in the food industry for our food dollars (Nestle, 2008). She states that the Westernized food industry is food administration in action watered-down government dietary advice, schools pushing soft drinks, diet supplements promoted as if they were First Amendment rights. When it comes to the mass production and consumption of food, strategic decisions are driven by economicsnot science, not common sense, and certainly not health (Nestle, 2008).The role of innovation in sustainable schooling should focus on more agriculture-based methods of food production that have been shown to prevent food waste, help resist climate change, and promote urban farming (Nestle, 2008). What is most important is to provide innovative products and services that are centered on humanity and that meet the needs of the consumer. Pollan does an excellent job at analyzing the problem and developing upshots based on the needs of society, particularly in America.The solution here is to revert back to the traditional way of consuming and purchasing food local food grown by local people. Pollan encourages that people become members of a Community-Supported Agriculture (CSA) program or shop for sassy produce at their local farmers markets. This local food movement enables new-made and soon to be farmers to provide environmentally sustainable agriculture while backup their local community and maturation food that directly connects them to the consumer (Collins, 2011).On the business perspective, CSAs are part of the Small Farm Movement that is growing across Europe and North America and farmers start off by selling their products at local farmers markets to test out what products the consumer is looking for, followed by building clientele and launching into a CSA (Collins, 2011). In order for CSAs to succeed as a sustainable innovation, farmers must understand the importance of truthful marketing and fostering relationships with th eir customers as the most important part of the business model.References 1) Pollan, M. (2008). In Defense of Food An Eaters Manifesto. Retrieved from http//ebookbrowse. com/michael-pollan-in-defense-of-food-an-eater-s-manifesto-pdf-d341084275 2) Nestle, M. (2008). Food Politics. Retrieved from http//www. foodpolitics. com/food-politics-how-the-food-industry-influences-nutrition-and-health/ 3) Collins, D. (2011). Community Supported Agriculture A Unique Business Model. Retrieved from http//www. omafra. gov. on. ca/english/crops/organic/news/2008-12a2. htm.

Environmental Science Worksheet Essay

1. What would you include in a design summary on the history of the environmental motility?The environmental movement is closely related with the appearance of environmental knowingness. Before 1960, very some people knew the term ecology. milieual concerns were absent in the political and friendly spheres. However, a groundbreaking book by Rachel Carson, Silent Spring, was published in 1960 and large numbers of people became awargon of the consequences of charitables encroachment upon the nature in terms of the use of highly toxic chemicals like the DDT. once more in this period, unhomogeneous environmental events like oil spills, news astir(predicate) the possible extinction of several species have also helped create an aw beness of the issue (Botkin & Keller, 2011, Ch. 1).People were divided into two camps environmentalists (those having dismal views that life on earth is in peril) and anti- environmentalists (those opposing the environmentalists and saying lore and prog ress are necessary for globe). Today we have overcome this either-or dichotomy and understood that science and progress do not withdraw to be poised against the environment. Environment can be comforted while industrialization and progress are maintained. Clean energy, new environmental regulations, and energy-efficiency are belied to help humans protect the nature.2. Explain the main point concerning exponential function addition and whether it is good or bad. Compare exponential harvest to a logistic fruit wrestle and explain how these might apply to human universe of discourse growth. What promotes exponential growth? What constrains world growth?Exponential growth is occurs when a state increases by a fixed percentage every year. Exponential growth is promote in the nature when a species is introduced to a new environment or when the cosmos of a species is small and environmental conditions are suitable for the species. However, exponential growth does not last long in the nature. Exponential growth is bad since continuously high reproduction prescribe for a species places extremum pressure on ecosystems. Logistic growth curve explains how exponential growth is stopped by limiting factors like natural resources. A population might grow sharply at the beginning but as the limiting factors (like water, space, food, predators, and disease) come into play, the growth levels off (Withgott & Brennan, 2009, p. 85).As for human population, exponential growth is promoted by new medicines that staved off many diseases, dependable run of food all around the year through scientific land involving artificial fertilizers, and the eradication of predators. As for the limiting factors, lack of urban space, come apart of habitats supporting human life, war, occasional epidemics (like AIDS or flu), and declining fertility of overused hoidenish areas are all serious obstacles to higher population growth.3.Compare predictions for human population growth in unquestionable countries versus developing countries. Why is it difficult to predict the growth of landed estates human population? Why should population growth be predicted?? What will happen if there is exponential human growth?Human population and its dynamics have very primal implications for the nature. Exponential human growth would have disastrous effects on the nature because a larger population means greater need for space (and hence, enlargement of cities into virgin territories), for food (turning more virgin district into agricultural lands), for water (diverting more water resources into cities for human use and endangering animals and plants).So, population growth should be predicted to better reconcile the prospective needs with the demand of protecting nature. Population predictions allow decision makers to make adjustments. Healthcare system, education, field security, and economics are the main areas that population predictions affect. Population growth pre dictions for developed and developing countries differ widely. This is due to the so-called demographic transition. In an developing country, birth and death range are high and the actual population growth is low. However, industrialization leads to improvement in health and death set outs decrease as a result while birth point is still high. Then, at the next exhibit, a high growth rate is maintained.But education and material welfare increase and family-planning methods are widely adopted. Consequently, birth rate decreases and nears the death rate. A zero growth rate occurs. Developed nations like the US, Germany, and Japan are at the furthest stage of population growth while developing nations experience declining death rate and still increasing birth rates. It is difficult to predict the growth of Earths human population because there is always the possibility of a natural disaster, and it is not certain whether some developing nations can receive at zero-growth stage bef ore facing catastrophic circumstances (Botkin & Keller, 2011, Ch. 4).4. How do beliefs of system possible action apply to the Earth as a subsisting system? Explain interactions between humans and natural ecosystems.The system guess and especially the Gaia Hypothesis see the Earth as a living system. According to this hypothesis, life changes the environment for the continuation of life. Hence the destruction is the Earth can achieve physiological selfregulation. The principles of the system theory can be summed as follows systems respond to inputs and outputs through the feedback mechanism. Positive feedback hurts the counterweight while negative feedback promotes stability.Relations between inputs and outputs of systems can be various linear, exponential, or defined by a logistic curve. The so-called principle of environmental unity basically holds that every component of the environment affects other component. According to the principle of uniformitarians, we can forecast environmental conditions in the future by looking at the past and present trends. Change in the nature can be slow, rapid, sudden or expected. Interactions between humans and natural ecosystems occur can be explained through all these principles (Botkin & Keller, 2011, Ch. 3).

Isis: Terrorism and Richest Terrorist Group

ISIS is the biggest terrorist army in history. It has caught tidy sums attention all around the terra firma and needs to be stopped immediately. Published by the Boston Herald, scholars Steven Buck,James Philips, Charlotte Florence, down the stairsworld Dale and Peter Brooked met up to make an article about the ISIS. ISIS Is a clear, enter danger. Before reading this article I had neer discovered SISS. I never wouldve thought that a terrorist crowd could cause so practically sadness and hate. I didnt enjoy that terrorists could form an army and just subside to destroy people.When they say convert, Join us, or die, they not only misbegotten it, but they will follow through with terrible effect. I never watch the countersign or read the newspaper so I didnt get the chance to hear about ISIS until now. It is absolutely sickening how people in this world can be. Now after reading this article, I learned a lot about ISIS. I learned that ISIS became a huge success so quickly. They even use social media to advertise themselves as a killing radical. Their Youth and Twitter page designate that the West Is their target. The ISIS Is rising to the top to the point where the terrorist gathering, al-Qaeda, want to come in concert with SISS. The al-Qaeda control no territory and Is dependent on Afghani and Pakistani and Salamis militants. The leaked is forced to live a clandestine existence under the constant threat of drone strikes while everyone in the world know about ISIS and how they harm people. The leader of ISIS, ABA-Baker al-Baghdad, is a charismatic leader who claims dip from the Prophet Mohammed. He has much more personal appeal for younker Muslim militants than al- Qaeda leader Amman al-Chair. Most people be aware that terrorist groups control almost everything.ISIS lone controls electricity, extortion racket, and exports OLL and gas. ISIS Is the richest terrorist group In history, as stated In the article. ISIS robs banks, controls OLL fields, and pockets a huge amount of money from ransoms. Robbing Moguls rudimentary bank yielded more than $400 million in gold and Iraq currency. It controls oil color fields in Syria and Iraq that generate income. How can people who were once so low in the world now be a group of terrorists who are an unstoppable army? Their army controls the size of Maryland ISIS is the most heavily-armed Salamis extremist group in history.They captured huge amounts of military weapons and equipment in Iraq and Syria. It is easier to trigger off across the border of Iraq and Syria than it is to travel to Pakistan or Afghanistan. The amount of disrespect this group has caused is disgusting. They should be embarrassed, not happy about it. After watching a video and looking up more Information I timber sick. ISIS needs to be stopped. In conclusion, after reading and watching the news about ISIS, all I have to say Is how sickening and granitic how people can be In this world. ISIS Is not Just a error g roup, it is an unstoppable army.ISIS attracts recruits from the Middle East, understand how much pain theyre causation others? Dont they realize whoever they just killed belong to a family? I hope quondam(prenominal) in the near future this group stops and realizes what they are doing is infliction others. Everyone needs to be at peace and go back to their country. If their group is so religious as Eve heard, what makes them want to harm others for no reason? This all needs to end soon. They need to get awful karma and rot in hell. My source for this essay is the Boston Herald.

Any Two Love or War Poems Studied and Compare and Contrast

The low poem I am leaving to write to the highest degree is the devolve on of the scintillation group by Alfred lord Tennyson. Alfred was born on the sixsometh of August 1809 in Lincolnshire England. Alfred died on the 6th of October 1892. The poem is talking nigh fight that he shew in the news composing and he wrote a poem about them. The appointment took place in the 1854. Alfred was non a soldier in the fight he think war is a dear thing. In the first indite it duologue about the six degree Celsius soldiers going to war in the valley of oddment. He dialog about the soldier being ambushed in the valley by the Russian army. The commander told the soldiers to go to the valley.The soldiers travel about six or seven miles in the valley half(prenominal) a league, half a league, half a league in the lead all in the valley of terminal. There is a good engross of tripling half a league, half a league, half a league three propagation at start sets up a rhythm you screw more or less hear the gallop of the horses hooves as you say the words. There is personification in this verse Valley of death this is a good because it suggests to us that the visible radiation aggroup argon going to lose their lives in the valley few of them will survive the battle. In the second verse he talks about the soldiers going up the valley aimy to battle send the get out group.The soldier didnt have a pick to go and battle in the valley of death. The soldiers had to go and fence because that was in that respect duty to do as the commander asks them to do saw. Alfred said the soldiers was brassy because it said in the poem theirs not to make reply Theirs not reason why Theirs but to do or die This regulates us that Alfred is telling that the soldiers was brave to fight for in that respect country. In this verse in that respect is personification In to the valley of death. This is a good use of personification because it describes the valley of death because of the battle in the valley.Ther is a ggod verb the Blunderd is good because it means making a mistake. This underlines the fact that what the shine brigade is doing is going to end in disaster. In the third verse it talks about the cannons shooting the come down aggroup cannon to the right of them, cannons to the left of them Cannons in front of them this is good repetition of the word Cannan underlines how senusly survounded the Light Brigade was by the enemy. It also tells us that with connons all round them the Light Brigade were pitiful into a unfoundedly trap as in that respect was no break off route.Theres a good persanification bthere Jaws of hell this is good because Jaws ar used for take and gobbling up food. The idea is that the soldiers atomic number 18 going to be eaten up by the fireing canans of the russians. The word Hell suggest that the place and circumstances are grand deal hell. There is a sense of doom. Alfred lord Tennyson tells that the ligh t brigade was bravely to go to the valley and fight. Boldly they rode and well The light brigade was foolish to go to the valley of death because the enemy was in the make it and they could shoot them easily.In the forth verse it talks about the Light Brigade ready to battle as they take there swards out. pompousnessd all their sabres bare Flashd as they bellyd in air The light brigade was fighting the gunners away(p) and charging the army away. Theres a good use of verbs in this poem Flashd, sabring, charging, plunged at the beginning of the verse underlines the heroic bravery with which they rode into the valley. Reeld shalterd and shunderd, This verbs at the end of the cerse tell us that the battle went badly for the Light Brigade and they are compel to retread.Alfred was talking about all the world was wondered as the Light Brigade was trying to fight. At the end it tells that the Light Brigade was retiring from the battle reeled from the sabre stroke. The soldiers was tired after the battle shattered and shunderd. The finishing two lines is formula that the light brigade is going underpin but not the six hundred that had started in the battle then they rode back but not, Not the six hundred In verse five it describing the battle that the Light Brigade fought in the valley of death.Alfred is saying what was the battle like to fight in. While horses and hero fell he is telling that the soldiers in the Light Brigade were being killed while they were fighting. In the last lines it tells All that was left of them, Left of the six hundred In this verse there are personification The jaws of death Theres use of onomatopoeia Thundered and Stormed as you hear the noises in your head, you are made certain of the seriousness of the attack against the Light Brigade, the cannons are shooting them to pieces.In the last verse of the poem is telling how proud were the soldiers when they came back of the battle when can their glory fade Alfred is praise war and fi ghting and the soldiers in the Light Brigade. Honour the charge they made, he is praising the charge that the Light Brigade made in the battle. Alfred is saying that the Light Brigade was brave to fight in the battle in the valley Noble six hundred. He uses onomatopoeia In this verse like Thundered and Stormed as you hear the noises in your head you are made aware of the seriousness of the attack against the light brigade.The second poem Im going to talk about is Dulce ET Decorum Est by Wilfred Owen. Wilfred Owen was born 18 of March 1893 in Shropshire England and he dead in the war in France in November 1918. In these to poems there are differences and similarities. In Wilfred Owens poem he has written from his experiences in war than Alfred had only read it from the newspaper. Wilfred was saying that war was a terrible thing and Alfred was praising war in his poem.I think that Alfred lord Tennyson is wrong about war, war isnt I good thing its terrible and Wilfred is write about wa r. The similarities in the two war poems are the both lots of soldiers are scared in the two poems. In the two poems there are creating a picture in your mined that there are hoi polloi dieing in the poems. In all my dreams before my helpless sight He plunges at me guttering, choking, drowning in Wilfred Owens poem and in Alfred poem is saying, sobering the gunners there. The poem starts off with a description of the soldiers.This is totally contrast to light Brigade where the soldiers are bold and Nobel. Soldiers in Dulce ET Decorum Est look like a bunch of old women Nock-kneed and coughing like hags. The poem starts with a smile. The soldiers are compared to old beggars under sacks This is complete several(predicate) with how we seem soldiers to be like they are tall and strong and their backs strait not hardening double Theirs a good use of repetition in this verse. repeat of the idea of old. old beggars and hags like old women.This contras again with how soldiers should be w e expect them to be young and full of life. There are some verbs in this verse such as trudge marched asleep drunken with jade suggest totally exhausted men who are nearly dead on their feet. This is totally different to the types of verbs used in the Light Brigade such as charging and flashing of swards. In verse 2 there is totally chaos when someone shouts out Gas Gas alert boys The soldiers are so tired that their reactions in finding and putting n their gas masks is really slow.Words like clumsy Stumbling underline that their movements are awkward and tired. In contrast the actions of the soldiers in the charge of the light brigade are fast and effective boldly they rode and well From this point onwards Dulce focuses on one induidiual man the one who fails to get his mask on and dies because his lungs are filling up with gas and he cannot breath, very different to the light brigade which focuses throughout on six hundred men.Dulce forces the referee to become emotionally invo lved we care about the terrible death of this one man but in light brigade because there are six hundred of them we seem to care less that most of them die. In verse 3 Wilfred Owen begins to talk directly to you. Earlier he has used I I saw him drowning which means that he in person was at the battle and witnessed what happened. Again this technique makes us feel unconsolable for the man who died.Differently to Alfred was never a soldier he read about the light brigade battle in the news paper the uses the pronoun They throughout his poem so again we dont feel close to these soldiers. The imagery in verse 3 of dulce is associated with parts of the carcass and ideas about likes that the reader finds disgusting e. g. the block came gargling from the frat and obscene as cancer These quotes underline how terrible death of this man was and if only multitude understood this they would stop pretending that it is great to die for your country Tennyson dreams that it is empyrean , noble and brave die for your country.

Organisational Environment

2 2. 1 The General surround The General milieu 2. 2 see, Monitoring, and Forecasting Changes in the Environment place Work strategical conclusion fashioning under conditions of dubiety 2. 3 Scenario supply secernate Work strategic inflection points and their imp suffice on dodge Tools and Techniques Undertaking scenario cookery 2. 4 infestation digest 2. 5 swot depth psychology 2. 6 The General and the Competitive Environments Tools and Techniques Writing a gent compendium ? Main Reference Schoe launchr, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario think a animal for strategical hinking. Sloan Management Re gull, 36(2), 25. Learning Objectives After completing this chapter you should be competent to find step to the fore what constitutes the frequent purlieu Evaluate the role of s seat and supervise in detecting environsal thins Apply scenario think to purpose qualification in equivocal milieus Evaluate gent as a role model for analysing the macro- environs Explain the engross of SWOT analytic thinking Evaluate the relationship mingled with the everyday and the emulous surround 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 36 2/1/11 110351 AM 7 Introduction 2 In the previous chapter we shadeed at what dodging is and introduced a number of different perspectives on strategy skeletonulation. We underwriteed the importance of values in determining why an establishment exists, and looked at how an transcriptions values, its vision, and its mission guide individuals demeanour by signposting what is important to the governing. We explained the importance of an fundamental law organism leave behinding to re home the assumptions that underpin its theory of the business if it is to adapt to win overs in its environs.We in the like manner introduced a strategic circumspection process which involves strategy abridgment, strategy yearulation, and strategy implementation. We no vernalorthy that this essenti wholly toldy linear approach is rec yclable for ex n wizard entirely whitethorn not always accurately replicate decisions in the business world. With this cautiousness in mind we ripe(p) nifty deal start to evaluate rough barbs of epitome that git be utilize for strategy abridgment. What happens in the usual environment is important to an establishment. This is beca role transmutes that take place in the customary environment whitethorn point to trends that fag substantially push upon an organisations agonistic environment.These diversenesss, few whiles called discontinuities, fractures, or tipping points, that fundamentally seismic disturbance on the agonistic environment bequeath be understanded in this chapter. The ray of lights of analysis an establishment screw custom to discern changes in its popular environment forget also be considered. This holds scenario readiness, which forget be assessed as an aid to systemal decision making in uncertain environments. The bene go awa ys and sterilizeations of a curse word framework, which includes form _or_ system of government-making, economic, br some otherly, and technological factors, leave be addressed.A SWOT analysis and its links with scenario cooking and pest analysis go out be briefly discussed before being taken up in detail in a subsequently chapter. The aim of the chapter is not exactly to apply these techniques but, importantly, to understand their limitations. The chapter ends with a word of the links between the habitual and warring environment. Section 2. 1 defines the oecumenical environment and explains its importance to the hawkish environment. Section 2. evaluates the role of see and observe the ecumenical environment to travail to discern discontinuities that beget the potentiality to disrupt an organizations competitive environment. In Section 2. 3 we assess the role of scenario planning in succoring organizations to deal with irresolution in their environment. T his section also includes how to initiate scenario planning. Section 2. 4 evaluates PEST analysis as a tool for analysing the macro-environment. It shows how an organization idler detect and monitor enervated signals in the fancy of recognizing the discontinuities or trends that shape the environment. In Section 2. we explain the example of SWOT analysis with equalence to the oecumenical and competitive environment. The chapter concludes in Section 2. 6 with an evaluation of the relationship between the oecumenic and competitive environments. 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 37 2/1/11 110352 AM 38 spell 2 Strategic abstract 2. 1 The General Environment 2 The external environment facing the organization consists of both a world(a) environment and a competitive environment. The competitive environment consists of the manufacturing and markets in which an organization competes. The competitive environment is analysed in detail in Chapter 3.The general environment, in co ntrast, is a lot referred to as the macro-environment. This is because changes that occur here pull up stakes ca-ca an resultant that transcends squiffys and specific industries. Figure 2. 1 shows the relationship between the general environment, the competitive environment, and the organization. It should be noted that, other things being equal, it is the competitive environment that has the close to now and immediate refer on the organization. The General Environment Political Economic The Competitive Environment Potential Entrants Power of Buyers The physical composition Power of Suppliers Competitive RivalrySubstitute Products/Services Social Technological figure 2. 1 The organization and its external environment That utter, organizations essential continually s dejection and monitor their general environment for signals, often asthenic or b atomic number 18ly perceptible, which competency indicate a change in their competitive environment. For example, smasheds in the exertion that produced typewriters would brace been unwise not to s domiciliate the general environment for signs of change, in this case technological change. The advent of micro-technologies was a 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 38 2/1/11 110352 AM the general environment 2 lear threat to the typewriter diligence, ushering in as it did the era of the word processor. It is easy to lead that individuals who relied upon the use of the typewriter were initially sceptical rough learning how to use the bare-ass technology. Nowadays one is hard pushed to see typewriters in use. In set to scan and monitor their environment, firms take aim tools of analysis or models that get out let in them to factor in the changes in the general environment and evaluate their impact. one(a) much(prenominal) approach involves scanning the environment to detect signals that will act as a signpost for future changes in the organizations industry.In additio n, an organization essential monitor its environment to discern pleasants and trends that are low to form and try to figure the future direction of these trends. Ginter and Duncan (1990) argue that macro-environmental analysis can act as an early-warning system by giving organizations condemnation to anticipate opportunities and threats and move up appropriate chemical reactions. therefore, the aim of macro-environmental analysis is to aid the organization in discerning trends in the general environment which susceptibility impact upon its industry and markets.The organization is then open to formulate a strategy and use its internal resources and capabilities to position itself to exploit opportunities as they a approach. At the equivalent eon the strategy will be acting to mitigate the set up of each threats. However, as we shall see in Chapter 3, on that point is a tone that the pace of change in the macro-environment is increasing, and is becoming more(preno minal) than than turbulent and un prophesyable. This un matter of course topicually shortens the lead time an organization has to anticipate and respond to changes in its environment. 39 2. Scanning, Monitoring, and Forecasting Changes in the Environment The purpose of scanning and supervise the general environment is to try to discern changes, however small, that feed a bun in the oven the potential to disrupt an organizations competitive environment. Once these changes are discerned, it is up to the organization to monitor them and see if they might incur a trend that can affect its industry. Clearly, experience and intuition will be baffling in trying to forecast where these changes will topicually manifest themselves, or indeed if they will take a shit some(prenominal) impact at all.We look at scanning, supervise, and promise changes in the general environment below. 2. 2. 1 Scanning the Environment It is often said that there are two certainties in animation death and taxes. However, a third certainty can be added change. If the external environment facing organizations was 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 39 2/1/11 110352 AM 2 40 discontinuities threats compositors cased by organizations that take up the potential to undermine the way they do business dim signals barely perceptible changes in the external environment whose impact has and to be felt 780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 40 start up 2 Strategic synopsis stable and simple to understand, then firms would be instanced with an en executable bit of having relatively little change or, if change occurs, it would be easy to forecast based on historic trends. Some commodity markets exhibit a relative spirit level of st cleverness, making cryions or extrapolations based on prehistorical break inment quite reliable. However, nearly environmental conditions facing organizations are complex, uncertain, and aban tire step uped to change. They are complex because of the sheer volume of data that exists in the environment.Therefore whatsoever analytical tool or framework can simply haul up and simplify a tiny proportion of this data. At the same time, whatsoever given source of data, for example economic data on the human beings assistance of the de be intimaterance, is ambiguous as it can be interpreted in a number of different ways. If past(a) performance is no guarantee of what will occur in the future because of uneven changes and discontinuities then blasts at forecasting the future are fraught with irresolution. Discontinuities refer to the threats faced by organizations and industries that have the potential to undermine the way they do business.We have already mentioned the typewriter industry other examples include Amazon. com and Dell, which have both taken advantage of the network to change the way established products are customized and delivered to end consumers. Fahey and Narayanan (1986, quoted by Me rcer 1998) kindle three goals for an analysis of the general environment. First, the analysis should provide an understanding of incumbent and potential changes taking place in the environment. Second, it should provide important nakeds show for strategic decision makers.Third, environmental analysis should facilitate and foster strategic thinking in organizations. For Fahey and Narayanan, scanning may reveal actual or imminent environmental change because it explicitly counselinges on areas that the organization may have previously neglected (see Mercer 1998). Scanning the environment as a general employment has been made remote more make up trenchant with the advent of the net income. Prior to the Internet, the understand was that scanning was a monetary valuely bodily process which could altogether take account of a fraction of the culture that existed in an organizations environment.By redefining search be, the Internet has changed the economics of undertaking s canning. At the same time it has provided an opportunity to access a wealth of data which requires time and effort to structure properly. Scanning, therefore, is an opportunity for the organization to detect flimsy signals in the general environment before these have coalesced into a discernible pattern which might affect its competitive environment. Weak signals refer to minor changes in the external environment that an organizations scanning of the environment may barely register. This is because their impact has yet to be felt.The learn for organizations is to be able to read these signals correctly and monitor them until they coalesce into a more all the way discernible pattern. However, there are errors that can fall when looking for patterns. The get-go is that the organization may fail to position these signals. The wink is that the organization may discern a pattern that is not there but is based on the assumptions and mental models that cutrs railcarry in their he ads. We truism in Chapter 1 how senior vigilances reliance on its existing theory of the business can affect the success of the organization by blindsiding them to changes /1/11 110352 AM the general environment 41 taking place in the environment. Ansoff (1984) makes the point that the spotting of weak signals requires senior management commitment and sensitivity on the part of the observers. This means that the organization must be diligent in continually scanning its macro-environment for weak signals. When it believes that it has discerned something prodigious occurring in its general environment, this broad scanning can turn into a more foc employ monitor. 2 2. 2. 2 Monitoring the EnvironmentWhile scanning the environment may make organizations advised of weak signals, unless these are carefully monitored the resulting patterns will be missed. Monitoring can be seen as the activity that follows these initially different signals and tracks them as they grow into more clearl y discernible patterns. Monitoring allows an organization to see how these general environment trends will impact on its competitive environment. Whereas scanning is a more broad-brush approach, monitoring uses a finer brush stroke.However, the two are inseparable, since without an appellative of weak signals in the general environment there is no stretch for an organizations monitoring activities. bingle way in which an organization might monitor weak signals is to set thresholds such that any activity which occurs above the threshold will be monitored. This might include, for example, when an raise is sh take in by a major competitor in a particular tender or technological change. This spare-time activity then becomes the threshold at which the organization itself starts to take an interest. 2. 2. 3 Forecasting Changes in the EnvironmentThe purpose of scanning and monitoring the general environment is to aid the organization in developing viable forecasts of future trends before they become an unmitigated threat. This is specially useful when transaction with discontinuities which themselves will usually evolve from weak signals that exist in the environment. The quarry is to use this randomness to develop robust strategies that look into a degree of competitive advantage. Van der Heijden (1996) identifies three main types of uncertainty. 1. Risks. This is where past performance of connatural events allows us to estimate the probabilities of future ends. . Structural uncertainties. This is where an event is unique full not to offer evidence of such probabilities. 3. Un screwables. This is where we cannot even imagine the event. nigh managers are capable of relations with the type of uncertainty that appears in the form of risks. Also, what is unknowable cannot, by definition, be forecast and 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 41 2/1/11 110352 AM 42 structural uncertainties where no likely pattern of outcomes c an be derived from previous experience part 2 Strategic Analysis herefore the organization must wait for the event to occur before it can react to it. This leaves structural uncertainties where no probable pattern of outcomes can be derived from previous experience. In such a situation, van der Heijden suggests scenario planning as a useful tool of analysis to help the organization make sense of an uncertain and dynamic environment that has little in the way of clear road maps. 2 For information on strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty go to the Online resourcefulness Centre and see the Key Work feature. www. oxfordtextbooks. co. uk/orc/henry2e/ . 3 Scenario Planning Schoemaker (1995) states that scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures. It is an internally coherent view of what the future might turn out to be (Porter 1985, p. 446). The crude oil multinational Royal Dutch typeface has utilize scenario planning since the seven ties to help it generate and evaluate its strategic options. Scenario planning has given Shell a emend success rate in its oil forecasts than its competitors, and it was the offset oil fellowship to see overcapacity in the tanker business and atomic number 63s petrochemicals (Schoemaker 1995).Kahane (1992) reminds us that In the oil industry, experts have sometimes been able to suggest, but rarely to prefigure, the delineate turning points in crude oil prices . . . The Shell approach to strategic planning is, instead of forecasts, to use scenarios, a set of stories about alternative futures. scenario a thought-provoking, plausible, and internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be tipping point an un apprehendd and unpredictable event that has a major impact on an organizations environment 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. ndd 42 These stories promote a discussion of possibilities beyond the well-nigh likely one and encourage the organization to consider what if questions. Therefore, a scenario can be seen as a challenging, plausible, and internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be. They are not forecasts in the sense that one is able to extrapolate using past data. However, they do deal with the future and provide a tool of analysis for the organization to structure the surfeit of information that is contained in the present.In particular, scenarios help organizations tell the weak signals that signpost changes in its environment. It is these weak signals which precede environmental discontinuities, fractures, or strategic inflection points that help shape the competitive environment (Morgan 1988 Grove 1996). If an organization is to breathe proactive in its competitive environment it must not allow the rules of the game to be changed to its detriment, that is, it must be capable of traffic with a tipping point (Glad sound 2000), an unexpected and unpredictable event that has a major impact on an organizations e nvironment. /1/11 110353 AM the general environment 43 For a discussion of strategic inflection points and their impact on strategy go to the Online resource Centre and see the Key Work feature. www. oxfordtextbooks. co. uk/orc/henry2e/ 2 Strategic decisions are al close always fraught with ambiguity and uncertainty which attain complexness for decision makers. As human beings we are subject to biases and imperfect reason about uncertainty, that is, as individuals we will tend to misread events that are unconvincing and either ignore or overemphasize unlikely but significant events.In an attempt to resolve these shortcomings, most companies will use some form of discounted cash flow coupled with sensitivity analysis when analysing risky strategic decisions (Gertner 2000). The problem with these quantitative approaches is that they imbue the decision making with a spurringious sense of objectivity and can be misleading. For example, sensitivity analysis is seen as overly simpli stic in that by varying one disceptation at a time it fails to incorporate any links or correlations between them.Scenario planning is an approach to decision making under conditions of uncertainty that helps to overcome umteen of the shortcomings of traditional decisionmaking methods that is, scenario planning allows organizations to change some(prenominal) variables at the same time without keeping other variables constant. Crucially, scenario planning helps to overcome some of the biases and imperfect reasoning that human beings make under conditions of uncertainty. Scenarios are a tool of analysis to help improve the decision-making process set against the mise en scene of a number of possible future environments.They advantage the organization by readily helping managers think in a more taxonomical way. This allows individuals to more readily recognize change in their business environment instead of ignoring or rejecting it. Van der Heijden (1996), a former head of scenar io planning at Shell, states that the benefits of scenario planning for Shell have been More robust strategic decisions. Better thinking about the future by a reaching mental model. Enhancing corporate perception and recognizing events as a pattern (the recognition and monitoring of weak signals until they coalesce into a pattern is clearly important here). Improving communication without the company by providing a context for decisions. A means to provide leadership to the organization. The process of scenario planning should have the objective of electropositively influencing the strategy of the organization. This requires that the scenarios devised should stretch the imagination of management while also remaining plausible. In order to achieve this, organizations must be prepared to invest resources in educating managers to help them make the surpass use of scenarios.They hire to recognize that developing scenarios takes time and is most effective when managers from diff erent 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 43 2/1/11 110353 AM 44 part 2 Strategic Analysis 2 parts of the business interact. By constructing double scenarios, an organization can seek the consequences of uncertainty for its survival of the fittest of strategies. Furthermore, an organization can formulate strategies knowing that the assumptions on which it competes, what Drucker (1995) refers to as its theory of the business, are come ind and adequately assessed. See Case shoot Novacroft which highlights some of the difficulties of taking account of a changing environment). case withdraw 2. 1 NovacroftDealing with change Over the past atomic number 23 eld Novacroft, which designs, develops and manages smart tease for travel and leisure-service providers, such as Transport for London, has enjoyed strong demand thank to policies promoting exoteric transport and Oyster-style integrated ticketing systems. But proposed public spending cuts and heav y trading conditions in the travel industry make future investments more doubtful, tally to Novacrofts managing director Debra Charles. Our market should be both emerging and growing, but there are economic barriers, she admits. Organisations, especially in the public sector, have to make savings. Our competitors are financially stretched so they are interchange cheap. We must innovate to find new clients as well as saving our existing customers money. Charles, who has a background in both technology and marketing, launched Novacroft in 1998 with money inherited from her parents. As the companys be suggests, she was inspired to start a firm that would use the web to develop new ways of working. I thought it would be great to create a transparent online database so that organisations could see what was happening with their money and their clients, she remembers. Now, the Northampton-based firm manages more than 1m customer records for clients that issue pre-paid travel tickets and other smart cards. module verify and process paper or online applications before loading the information onto a chip, producing p stick outic cards, processing payments and providing a help centerfield that answers cardholders queries. Novacroft can also analyse records ranging from call notes to scanned documents to help clients understand their customers habits.One of Novacrofts highest write contracts is to manage the concessionary Oyster cards for students, children and 16- and 17-year olds on behalf of Transport for London. As well as checking that applicants have given correct information about their age, address and place of education, the companys helpline deals with questions such as how to replace doomed or stolen cards. The company also manages concessionary travel cards on behalf of the Scotch government and handles online applications for Young Persons, Family and Senior Railcards for the Association of Train Operating Companies. 780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 44 2/1/11 110353 AM the general environment 2 In the past, clients might have used several different firms to produce cards, provide databases and integrate systems, but we have all that under one roof, explains Charles, whose foreland rivals are major systems integrators such as Accenture and Logica. We have been successful in getting big companies on dining table with the tender process because we have invested in hiring and training the even out people and really thinking about what the customer needs. We even self-impose penalization clauses. As a result, Novacroft made a substantial profit last year on a turnover of ? 6m, up from ? 4. 9m in 2007. The company has 96 employees, which rises to approximately 200 when extra staff are brought in to the call centre during the busy start to the academic year. Finding new clients by maximizing the puke and quality of service is a key challenge for Novacroft. As Charles points out, in the aftermath of the bank bail-outs, pledges s uch as transport secretary Lord Adoniss promise to consider incentives for train operating companies that introduce smart ticketing look far from secure. washbowl we really assume that these statements are facts or that money is ringfenced? she says. The real certainty is that the government and train operating companies have to save money. In modern months Novacroft has worked on scenario planning to consider how the company might react to changing demand. The company prides itself on a foxy approach to market conditions, mournful nimbly and using all its available tools to tackle future trends. We pass 14 hours in a hotel room thinking about what we know, what we dont know and removeing the rules of the game and our competition. Understandably, Charles is reluctant to reveal her conclusions, but she is very confident that the exercise was worthwhile. We have created a massive opportunity thats totally outside what our competitors are thinking about. Some diversification i nto products such as money cards is likely, while pull ining databases that clients can outsource to India is another possibility. Improving efficiency to keep prices competitive for cash-strapped public sector organisations is another priority. Since March, Charles has introduced a series of lean management techniques that have cut osts by more than ? 80,000 while maintaining service standards. For example, a study of customer service queries revealed that the number of calls processed by the help centre could be cut by improving online information. The company is also reaping the benefits of investment funds around ? 40,000 in staff leadership training over the past three months, she says. Charles believes that, patronage the slow refine, Novacroft could achieve a turnover of up to ? 20m indoors the next five years. We stand for innovation, service delivery and value for moneyand thats always attractive. 45Source Smart ticketing business Novacroft is looking to play its cards r ight Daily Telegraph, 14 August 2009 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 45 2/1/11 110353 AM 46 part 2 Strategic Analysis Questions 1. In what ways might scenario planning help Novacroft to remain competitive? 2. What remedies might Novacroft pursue to void its reliance on public sector finance? 2 3. Comment on Debra Charless confidence in Novacrofts business model. 2. 3. 1 Undertaking Scenario Planning1 Scenario planning is applicable to almost any situation in which a decision maker needs to understand how the future of his or her industry or strategic usiness unit might develop. It divides our knowledge into two areas (1) things we think we know something about, and (2) things we consider uncertain or unknowable. The first area is based on the past and continuity. For example, an organization can make fairly safe assumptions about the direction of a countrys demographic profile. The uncertain elements include such things as future oil prices, interest rate, and the outcomes of po licy-making elections. nonetheless here it is not necessary to account for every possible outcome, since simplifying the outcome is fine for scenario planning.Therefore, an organization might simply categorize future interest rates as high, medium, or low, quite a than trying to work out every possible permutation. Also, as scenarios highlight possible futures but not specific strategy formulations, outside opinions such as those of consultants can be included in the process. A process for developing scenarios is as follows. 1. Define the scope. This involves setting the time frame and the scope of analysis. The time frame can be determined by factors such as product life cycles and rate of technological change. The scope of analysis may include products, markets, and geographical areas.Once the time frame is set, the question becomes What knowledge would the organization benefit most from in that timescale? 2. Identify the major stakeholders. Those who can affect and are abnorm al by the organizations decisions. The organization needs to know their true levels of interests and power, and how these have changed over time. 3. Identify basic trends. Which political, economic, complaisant, technological, and industry factors will have the most impact on the issues identified in Step 1? The impact of these trends on current strategy can be listed as positive, negative, or uncertain. . Identify key uncertainties. Which events that have an uncertain outcome will most affect the issues the organization is impacted with? Here again the 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 46 2/1/11 110353 AM the general environment 47 organization might consider political, economic, social, and technological factors, in addition to industry factors. For example, what will characterize future consumer trends? An organization should develop possible outcomes for each of these uncertainties. These should be hold to keep the analysis simple. 2 5. Construct initial scenario themes.Once trends and uncertainties are developed, the organization has the basic building blocks for scenario planning. It can then identify extreme world views by juxtaposing all positive elements in one scenario and the negative elements in another broad scenario. 6. full point for consistency and plausibility. This involves checking to see if the trends identified are compatible with the chosen time frame. If they are not, then remove all the trends that do not fit the time frame. Do the scenarios combine outcomes of uncertainty that actually go in concert?In other words, ensure that inconsistent outcomes are not specify in a scenario, such as having full employment and zero inflation together. Lastly, have major stakeholders been placed in a position they will not tolerate or cannot change? In this case, the scenario draw will probably change into another one. The key then is to identify this supreme scenario. 7. Develop learning scenarios. Here the role is to develop relevant themes for the organization around which possible outcomes and trends can be organized. The scenarios can be given a name or title to reflect that they insure a story.This also helps individuals to remember the scenarios. At this stage the scenarios are useful for research and further learning inside the organization rather than decision making. 8. Identify research needs. At this stage, further research may be required to understand uncertainties and trends more fully. This is because organizations are knowledgeable about their own competitive environment but less knowledgeable about other industries. Therefore, the organization may need to study changes, in technology for instance, which have yet to impact its industry but may in conclusion do so. . Develop quantitative models. Once further research has been gained, the organization may wish to revisit the internal consistency of the scenarios and decide whether it might benefit from formalizing some interactions in a quantitative mo del. 10. Evolve towards decision scenarios. The ultimate aim of this process is to move the organization towards scenarios that can be used to test its strategy formulation and help it generate new ideas. At this point it is helpful to double check Steps 18 to see if the scenarios take account of the issues facing the organization.If the scenarios are useful to the organization, they might have the following characteristics (1) they address the fearfulnesss of individuals in the organization (2) the scenarios are internally consistent (3) they describe fundamentally different futures 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 47 2/1/11 110354 AM 48 part 2 Strategic Analysis 2 as argue to being variations on a particular theme and (4) each scenario describes an equilibrium state that can exist for a considerable period of time as opposed to being merely short-lived.In summary scenario planning attempts to capture the richness and range of possibilities, stimu lating decision makers to consider changes they would otherwise ignore . . . organizing . . . into narratives that are easier to nail and use than great volumes of data. Above all . . . scenarios are aimed at challenging the prevailing mind-set. (Schoemaker 1995, p. 27) It is perhaps worth reiterating that scenarios are not intended to predict the future. They are designed to help managers deal with a highly uncertain and dynamic environment.They may be aimed at the general or competitive environment (for a discussion of why scenario analysis should be use at the industry level see Porter (1985)). Porter, whilst recognizing the value of multiple scenarios for an organizations choice of strategy when considering scenario planning at the macro-level, argues, Macroscenarios, despite their relevance, are too general to be sufficient for developing strategy in a particular industry (Porter 1985, p. 447). Whether this statement is accepted may depend more on the industry being addressed rather than scenario planning per se.Scenarios encourage management to think the unthinkable, to question and surface assumptions they hold about the environment, and to be prepared to view events from a radically different perspective. Scenarios are a tool of analysis that examines the impact of uncertainty on organizations and industries by explicitly identifying some of the key uncertaintiesthe scenario variables. For scenarios to be effective, they must encourage the creation of robust strategies that match the organizations limited resources with the endless challenges in the external environment.To do this, scenario planning must ensure that as many as possible of the long-term opportunities and threats facing the organization are identified and addressed. For more information on how to undertake scenario planning go to the Online Resource Centre and see the Tools and Techniques feature. www. oxfordtextbooks. co. uk/orc/henry2e/ 2. 4 PEST Analysis A useful tool when scanning t he general environment is PEST analysis. This refers to political, economic, social, and technological factors. It is worth noting that some commentators include legal and environmental factors separately, preferring to croak the acronym to PESTLE.However, the legal element of the acronym can be 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 48 2/1/11 110354 AM the general environment 2 subsumed deep down the political factor. In addition, the use of the last E (which refers to environmental factors) is often meant to signify the effects of our lifestyles on our environment, such as the use of fossil fuels and their impact upon climate change. In this comply it can be captured at heart the social factor, or indeed within all quartette factors in one form or another.Therefore, it is not important whether we use PEST (or STEP) or PESTLE, but to understand how this framework can be used and to be aware of its limitations. As long as the choice of acronym is clearly defined we have a consistent a pproach. What will PEST do for the organization? PEST analysis is simply another tool to help the organization detect and monitor those weak signals in the hope of recognizing the discontinuities or fractures shaping the environment. PEST analysis can be used to help detect trends in the external environment that will ultimately find their way into the competitive environment.It provides a link between the general and competitive environments in that weak signals in the general environment can become key forces for change in the competitive environment. Although we will deal with each factor in turn, it should be noted that interrelationships between the factors exist. For example, a social trend of healthier eating and consumers increasing distaste for pulverization farming (the crowding of animals and fowl in confined spaces prior to their sales agreement for human usance) may signal to supermarkets a change in consumer deportment and spending patterns. 9 2. 4. 1 Political Fac tors The political factor of PEST deals with the effects of government policy. Inasmuch as government policy is worked out through legislation, it encompasses all legal elements of this analysis. This includes items such as government stability, taxation policy, and government regulation. politics stability is not a major issue in Western economies. However, where multinational corporations operate across international borders, the stability of governments and political systems in those countries needs to be taken into account.These corporations need to be sensible that there will not be any sudden and pestiferous changes that might jeopardize the substantial investments they will have made. The safety of their staff office operating in these countries will be paramount, as will the introduction of an infrastructure which allows the efficient transfer of goods and services as well as financial assets. For instance, a government policy of deregulation or privatization has the e ffect of opening up markets to competition.Previously comfortable industries feel the chill wind of change, and organizations within the industry are forced to innovate and cut costs to remain competitive. This is because new entrants will often enter a market with deject cost curves and more innovative products and services owing to a relegate use of technology and a clearer understanding of consumer needs. To avoid being surprised, companies need to be scanning their environment for signs of change in government policy which might impact on their industry. 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 49 2/1/11 110354 AM 2 50 corporate social debt instrument ecognition that organizations need to take account of the social and ethical impact of their business decisions on the wider environment in which they compete part 2 Strategic Analysis An air or sea disaster which costs human lives may prompt tighter government regulations in the areas of health and safety, particularly where an investi gation shows that the disaster could have been avoided. Companies operating within these industries should not be waiting to react to the outcome but should have worked out the ramifications of government involvement and be positioning themselves to take advantage of government regulation.The decline in carbon dioxide emissions and new fuel consumption standards for cars came about as a result of intergovernmental regulations. This, in turn, was a result of widespread look up by consumers and environmental groups about climate change due to increase levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This highlights the links between social trends and political change. Government regulation need not be something for companies to fear.Porter and van der Linde (1995) point out that environmental regulations, such as reducing pollution, may act to spur competitive companies on to innovate and reduce costs to counter the change magnitude costs of regulation. While the US car makers fought new fuel consumption standards in the vain hope that they would go away, the Japanese and German car makers developed lighter and more fuel-efficient cars. The companies that reap the competitive benefits will be the early movers the companies that see the opportunity first and embrace innovation-based solutions (Porter and van der Linde 1995).To do this, managers need to develop a new mindset which recognizes environmental betterment as a competitive opportunity rather than a threat. There is evidence across the Anglo-American economies of the UK and the US that some organizations are beginning to recognize that good business can involve corporate social responsibility (CSR). For example, the worlds leading media company, clock Warner, produced its first comprehensive subject field on its corporate social responsibility activities in 2006. It states Corporate social responsibility is not an afterthought at our company. It is central to what we do.Thats because Time Warner cannot be a great company unless we are a good company . . . Its simply good business to do so. (Time Warner 2006) In the US the SarbanesOxley Act 2002 resulted from the corporate collapse of Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco. There was widespread concern that boardroom administrators (including non-executives) and the accountancy profession had failed to safeguard shareholders interest, and in the case of Enron had actively operated to pervert that interest. Internal auditors were seen as ineffectual and often completely unaware of what powerful executives were doing.This legislation can work to the advantage of companies that are proactive in their response to it. For example, shareholders will be more confident in investing in a company which can show that it already has stringent ethical guidelines in place and that any breach of those guidelines will be taken seriously. The Building Society Act 1986 allowed building societies in the UK to offer current accounts and financial services that were previously the preserve of banks. This had 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 50 2/1/11 110354 AM the general environment 51 ar-reaching effects on the financial services sector, escalate competition for customers and leading to consolidation within the industry. A player within the industry would have been wise to conduct some form of PEST analysis in order to determine the effects of these politically impelled changes within the industry and on their organization. 2. 4. 2 Economic Factors 2 Key economic indicators include interest rates, disposable income, unemployment rates, retail price exponent (inflation), gross domestic product (GDP), and exchange rates. However, economic data can be notoriously fickle and ambiguous.In addition, an economic indicator can never provide a complete picture (even of the subset of data it purports to track), but rather provides a snapshot and simplification of complex economic phenomena. This makes scanning and monitoring the general environme nt for signs of economic shifts which might impact an organizations industry a little difficult. The strengthening of an economy will principally benefit industries, but the extent of its effect will vary according to which economic factors are most affected. For example, the wind industry and manufacturing are most susceptible to increases in the rate of interest.Manufacturing organizations which export goods abroad will be scanning the general environment for signs of an appreciation in exchange rates, the effect of which will be to make it harder for them to sell their goods abroad but relatively easier for importers to sell their goods in the domestic market. In order to remain competitive, manufacturers exportation abroad will need to make efficiency gains and innovate so that they can offset the unfavourable exchange rate with a reducing in price or increase in quality. strategy focus PEST Analysis The Construction IndustryThe construction industry worldwide is famous for o perating on narrow profit margins. Any sudden and lengthened rises in interest rates can have a thoughtful effect on industry profitability. The key for players in this industry is to embrace funds at an interest rate which allows building projects to be sinless successfully, on budget, and on time. Where there is slip page of large-scale construction projects, as was seen with the production line Tunnel, this immediately brings into doubt their financial viability. Any delay inevitably increases the lowest project cost.Investors will be acutely aware that their investment in a project has an opportunity cost, that is, their money might be better invested elsewhere. If interest rates begin to climb this 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 51 2/1/11 110354 AM part 2 Strategic Analysis Construction firms already scanning and monitoring their environment can anticipate economic trends and prepare for them. iStockphoto. com/David Newton 2 52 exacerbat es the situation, as investors will demand a greater return. The consortium of banks financing loans will want to rearrange the interest ates on offer to reflect the increase risk and changing economic conditions. UK and US banks are known for their preference for short-term financing and unwillingness to invest in the equity of construction projects, in contrast with their Japanese counterparts. This makes the monitoring of data and detecting any changes in the environment of great importance. Investment banks will readily collapse up any adverse change in the economic rudiments of a project. Therefore, the organization must not only be aware of these changes but also have contingent plans in place for dealing with them.It also helps if the organization is aware of the interrelationships between economic variablesthat a rise in inflation will probably cause the monetary politics to consider increasing interest rates. They can then work through the ramifications of such changes on their projects. If one of the governments political priorities is to manage the economy, we can see a relationship between economic and political factors. Construction firms already scanning and monitoring their environment will be expecting these trends and therefore be prepared.Central bankers, such as the chairman of the US federal official Reserve Bank and the Governor of the Bank of England, are faced with a number of dilemmas. For instance, the economic data they will be tracking and monitoring will contain conflicting views. This forces them to use their thinker to look for comparable patterns that have occurred in the past as a basis on which they can make decisions. This is not all that they have to contend with. The ease of economic data being monitored may lead them to believe that the economy is overheating. Their response may be a quarter-point increase in interest rates.However, the time it takes to implement the interest rate rise and for this to impact on the e conomy may take a further sestet months. In that time it is conceivable that more recent economic data will point to the economy actually slowing down. Therefore, the effect of the rise in interest rates will be to accelerate 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 52 2/1/11 110355 AM the general environment 53 the likelihood of an economic downturn. This reinforces the need for sombre and intelligent judgement when using PEST analysis. 2. 4. 3 Social Factors 2Social factors include cultural changes within the environment and are often referred to as socio-cultural. In the UK, increasing consumer concern with genetically modified food (GMF) and lobbying from consumer groups forced the government to scale down its introduction of genetically modified crops. Clearly, such social trends are of great importance to companies which research and produce genetically modified products. Many have been caught unawares by the strength of consumer response and find that they must first allay consumer fears if their products are to be fully accepted.Indeed, the frozen food retail merchant Iceland was one of the first retailers to state emphatically that none of the food products it stocks contains genetically modified ingredients. In doing so Iceland had accurately read a change in social trends and recognized that it would influence consumer spending patterns. Other supermarkets were chop-chop to follow. strategy focus Demographic Changes Courtesy of Johnson & Johnson The US and Western atomic number 63 face an ripening race with attendant problems for pension fund provisions. As the base of the working population continues o shrink, while advances in medical exam science and healthier eating ensure that people continue to live longer, companies are faced with shortfalls in the pension fund provisions they make for employee retirement. One solution is to encourage employees to take out personal pension plans that will supplement any state provision. Another solution being considered by governments is for employees to consider working for longer. In this way they can build up their pension fund to an acceptable level and avoid any shortfall. In response to a falling birth rate, companies like Johnson & Johnson, intricate with the provision of baby-care products,In response to a falling birth rate, companies have efficaciously targeted these like Johnson & Johnson have targeted their products at an adult female baby products at an adult female audience. 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 53 2/1/11 110356 AM 54 part 2 Strategic Analysis 2 audience. For example, their baby lotion is now marketed as being kind and gentle to womens skin, as well as that of babies. This represents a response to changes in the general environment that directly affect their industry. Retail organizations in the US and Europe are more and more responding to the changing demographics of an ageing population by employing lder personnel. They recognize that retired employees pos sess a wealth of experience and respect for others that can be used to add value when serving customers. 2. 4. 4 Technological Factors Without doubt some of the major changes taking place in the general environment that are impacting the competitive environment are technological. One merely has to think about how Amazon and Dell have used the Internet to change traditional retailing within their respective industries. For instance, for a small retailer operating in a remote location, the financial outlay of marketing its product to customers nationwide would prove prohibitive.However, with the advent of the Internet, a retailer can access these consumers with a basic web page advertising its wares worldwide. It is interesting to note that small family businesses find their goods being demanded far outside their national borders because of awareness of their products through the Internet. Technological factors include the rates of obsolescence, that is, the speed with which new techn ological discoveries supersede established technologies. The rate of change in technology and innovations has the effect of causing new industries to emerge and also changes the ways in which existing industries compete.Technological advances include the Internet, the use of sophisticated software program (increasingly being used in the design and testing of automobiles), genetic applied science (see Section 2. 4. 3), and nanotechnology. The rapid rate of change of technology has changed the dynamics of industries such as newspaper publishing, banking, financial services, and indemnity. This has allowed new entrants to enter the market at a lower cost base than incumbents, thereby offering more competitively priced products and services and gaining market share in the process. reign Line insurance in the UK cuts out the insurance broker (intermediate) by providing insurance quotations direct to the consumer over the holler. This allowed it to gain rapid market share and eventual ly become the marker leader. It changed the rules of the insurance industry, forcing incumbent players to follow suit or face a loss in market share. As the insurance industry becomes increasingly commoditized, differentiation becomes harder to achieve as organizations compete on price. Direct Lines first-mover advantage is being eroded, as competing firms such as Norwich Union prove capable of competing on a price basis. 780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 54 2/1/11 110357 AM the general environment 2 First Direct, a subsidiary of HSBC, pioneered the use of telephone banking in the UK. At the time competitors were slow to follow suit, but, once it was established, all players offered a telephone banking option. The same is true of Internet banking. Telephone and Internet banking provide obvious consumer benefits as the financial cost of undertaking proceeding within a bank branch is far in surfeit of the same transaction undertaken by telephone or online.In fact, when the transaction is undertaken online the cost falls substantially. Therefore, organizations must be prepared to innovate and adopt new technologies if they wish to remain competitive. The Internet has been compared to the Industrial Revolution in toll of the changes it has brought about. The pace of change of technology is increasing. Its unpredictability is increasing. Markets are becoming increasingly turbulent. This makes it important to try to detect the weak signals which grow into discernible patterns that have the potential to change how industries operate.Moreover, if tipping points are unexpected, we need to change our thinking via the use of scenario planning to expect the unexpected. Organizations may not be able to predict these events but they will be in a stronger competitive position to respond to them once they have occurred. While the impact of technological change and changing consumer preferences continues to challenge the business model of traditional high alley retailers such as the UKs WH Smith, such changes are not completely the preserve of the private sector.Organizations in the public sector also face changes, often socio-political in nature, and here too an understanding of PEST analysis can benefit the organization. (See Case Study Radical Change in the NHS, which highlights some of the important factors thrust change within the field of study health Service). 55 case study 2. 2 Radical Change in the NHS Senior officials have set hard-hitting targets to reduce the number of patients referred to medical specialists, or treated in Accident and Emergency departments, while GPs will be asked to cut down on the amount of time spent in consultations.The plans are being issued as senior managers warned that the NHS is about to face the great financial pressures since its inception. They fear that when the current spending round ends in 2011, the impact of an anticipated real-terms freeze or cutscoming as the demands on the NHS of an ageing popula tion increase will be devastating. The NHS alignment, which represents NHS managers, will tell this calendar weeks Labour Party conference that the impending challenge is so great that hospital closures and job cuts must be enforced across the country. 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 55 2/1/11 110357 AM iStockphoto. com/Sturti part 2 Strategic Analysis 2 56 The National Health Service It comes as two leading think tanks predict a future funding gap of between ? 20bn and ? 40bn within six years of 2011. Regional health authorities have ordered hospitals and master(a) care trusts to draw up plans for cuts worth billions. In London, NHS trusts have been told to detach more than half of A&E patients, and those seeing specialists, to cheaper polyclinics run by groups of GPs. Meanwhile, family doctors will be asked to speed up their consultations, reducing the average time per patient from 12 proceeding to eight.The instructions drawn up by NHS London, and seen by The Sunday Telegrap h, order trusts to demonstrate that they can deliver an aggressive scenario in response to funding pressures. Under its affordability assumptions, already-controversial plans to reduce the number of patients treated in hospital are given more demanding targets in an attempt to cut costs. Sixty per cent of activity which now takes place in A&E departments should happen in community clinics within five years, the document says, along with 55 per cent of outpatient treatment.Thirty per cent of outpatient appointments will be stopped altogether. Managers say not all appointments are necessary, though many doctors argue it is impossible to know in advance which patients do not need to be seen. The number of diagnostic tests carried out will be cut by 15 per cent, while the amount of surgery will be reduced by seven per cent. Although the polyclinic model, to reduce demand on hospitals, is supposed to shift more treatment into the community, GPs will be told to reduce their average appoin tment time by one third, from 12 minutes to eight.Senior managers in other regions, who will draw up their own plans later this year, said rural communities faced particular pressures, with small maternity and soil general hospitals likely to struggle in the funding crisis. In a speech tonight to the Labour Party conference in Brighton, the NHS Confederation will warn that the service across the country faces unprecedented difficulties, which require bold and decisive measures. Its policy director Nigel Edwards told The Sunday Telegraph The NHS has never experienced a financial challenge of this magnitude or succession in its history. 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 56 2/1/11 110357 AM the general environment 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 57 2 He said improving the operation of the NHS, and treating more patients earlier in primary care, would not be enough to balance the books. Delegates will be told Savings only start to become available when we can shut entire buildings, si tes and reduce staffing numbers. The organisation, which represents NHS managers, will also call for uncomfortable decisions to be made to limit staff pay. Under a three-year deal already agreed, nurses will arrive a rise of 2. 5 per cent in April. Sir Robert Naylor, chief executive of University College Hospital in London, said pay should be frozen for NHS staff after that point. If it was not, every one per cent pay rise could cost 10,000 job cuts, he said. The chief executive said that while he supported plans to treat more patients in the community, he was concerned that PCTs were planning to cut back on hospital services before alternatives were fructify in place. The investment in those services has to come first or where do the patients go? he said, criticising oversimplified analyses which failed to take account of increasing public demand. Dr Laurence Buckman, chairman of the British Medical Associations GP committee, draw the plans as desperate and inadequately thought through. Dr Buckman, who works as a GP in London, said targets to reduce outpatient appointments by 30 per cent would put patients at particular risk. He said tout ensemble this means is that those people who are refused a referral to a specialist will be forced to go privately, or go nowhere. This will be difficult for doctors, but patients will be the real victims. While some specialist referrals turn out to be unnecessary, GPs only asked for a specialist opinion when they needed it, Dr Buckman said. A study by the Kings Fund and the Institute for Fiscal Studies forecasts a funding gap of between ? 20bn and ? 40bn by 2017, if funding for the NHS receives no increase, or gets a real-terms freeze which only keeps pace with inflation. Sue Slipman, director of the Foundation Trust Network, which represents the best hospitals, warned of an Armageddon scenario which could circulate without decisive action on pay, and terms and conditions.She said There is a trade-off between saving j obs, and pay increases, and in the current climate, protect jobs needs to be a priority. Katherine Murphy, from the Patients Association, accused NHS managers of wasting billions on management and repeated organisational restructuring during the boom years of record investment. She said there was no evidence that plans to shift patients into the community would provide safe care. Elderly patients often require intensive support which often means lots of staff, in hospitals. The need is only going to get greaterthese plans look like madness, she said.A spokesman for NHS London said its documents provided planning scenarios, rather than forecasts, to cope with a changing economic environment. He said 57 2/1/11 110358 AM 58 part 2 Strategic Analysis the NHS was investing heavily to ensure care was provided in the most appropriate setting. Source Plans for swingeing hospital cuts as NHS on bound of Armageddon Sunday Telegraph, 26 Sep 2009 2 Questions 1. Outline the PEST factors drivin g change within the NHS. 2. Which PEST factors do you consider to be the most important, and why? 3.How can an analysis of PEST factors help the government and NHS chief executives to resolve the crisis in the health service? 2. 4. 5 Limitations of PEST Analysis The economic example illustrates some of the limitations of dealing with macroenvironmental analysis. First, PEST analysis is not simply writing a shopping listthe use of disparate bullet points without any consideration of their wider ramifications. In listing the economic factors, for example, one must clearly draw out the implications of each factor on the organizations environment.In addition, the rate of change of PEST factors in the general environment and their increasing unpredictability act to limit the use of PEST analysis. Some have argued that the competitive environment is the only true plain for the organization to analyse since it is the competitive environment that has the greatest impact on a firms markets and products (Porter 1985, particularly Chapter 13). Whilst there is agreement that the competitive environment has the greatest effect on an organizations ability to achieve competitive advantage, it would be unwise to refrain from analysing the general environment.For information on how to write a PEST analysis go to the Online Resource Centre and see the Tools and Techniques feature. www. oxfordtextbooks. co. uk/orc/henry2e/ 2. 5 SWOT Analysis SWOT analysis refers to strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Strengths and weaknesses refer to the organizations internal environment over which the firm has control. Strengths are areas where the organization excels in comparison with its 9780199581610_035_063_CH02. indd 58 2/1/11 110358 AM the general environment 2 competitors, while weaknesses are areas where the orga